THE Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivative Company, Bismarck Rewane, said inflation projection for 2025 by the company showed a drop to 27 per cent from its current 34.6 per cent.
This is contrary to the 15 per cent projected by the Bola Tinubu-led federal government, for 2025, the ICIR findings have shown.
The President, during the presentation of the budget estimates to the joint session of the National Assembly last December, said the federal government will prune down inflation to 15 per cent in 2025.
Rewane, who spoke while reacting to the projected budget estimates argued that considering a number of economic indicators, it’s not going to be possible to see inflation drop to 15 per cent this year.
“In the World of reality, we’re seeing 27 or 25 per cent not 15 per cent.15 per cent is very bullish aspiration, but we live in the world of reality which I see 27 per cent. I will rather bet on that than bet in 15 per cent.
Bismarck who gave further insight to to the economic projections expected in 2025 said,” inflation will go down but not as predicted by the President down to 15 per cent, is not realistic.
He said that naira stability would help the the manufacturing sector plan and hedge against inflation. “It’s going to be a combination of lots of factors such as higher interest rate, increase in output and the reform of electricity sector.
“Generally speaking, N15.8 trillion on debt servicing in 2025 is based on the assumption that some interest rates would begin to decline in the course of the year. Several factors are involved.”
He stressed that Nigeria needs all the revenue to service debts, refinance existing debt obligations and finance part of its growth projections.
“We need foreign direct investments and increase in the general level of income to enable impact in the life of the people,” the economist added.
While offering a glimmer of hope on foreign exchange reforms, Rewane said, there’s going to be some level of exchange rate stability, which is expected to see the naira strengthen further and allow investors to make their own economic projections and hedge against inflation.
“The gap between the arbitrage is closing up and round tripping has reduced. This is positives to investors, but inflation need to go down further,” Rewane emphasised.
Apart from Rewane, some prominent Nigerians said economic indices are not promising enough to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty, following rising cost of living.
“As a nation, we have fallen from being the largest economy in Africa, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $574 billion and per capital income of over $3,500 in 2014, to now ranking fourth in the continent,” former presidential candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi said in his new year message.
“Our current GDP is less than 50 per cent of what it was a decade ago, standing at approximately $200 billon, with a per capital income of $,1000”
With diminishing purchasing power and rising hunger, the former Anambra governor further urged the president to do more to eradicate hunger.
“The newly approved N70,000 cannot afford a bag of rice or even a bag of beans. As a result, many Nigerians go to bed hungry, while many rely on charity and palliatives,” he added.
A development economist, Celestine Okeke, also said there’s no meaningful impact on the economic reforms and borrowings of the current administration.
“We’ve seen Nigeria’s debt rising astronomically to over N100 trillion since the current administration. Yet, we can’t see the meaningful impact in the lives of the people. The Political class live in affluence flying jets, but we don’t see them make the commensurate sacrifice they request from the people.
Notably, the economic indicators and further findings showed most Nigerians are struggling to cope with the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, with statistics showing Nigerians are not getting better.
The ICIR reports that Nigeria’s ranking on the 2024 Global Hunger index is 110 out of 137 countries, reflecting a critical level of hunger and food insecurity in the land.
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.