THE erratic power supply currently being experienced by Nigerians, especially amid the current heat season, has called into question the leadership of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, as he reportedly eyes the governorship of Oyo State ahead of 2027 polls.
Since his appointment by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in August 2023, the minister has overseen the Ministry of Power, a sector that continues to struggle to deliver reliable electricity for Nigerians.
In a trending video in October 2025, Adelabu formally declared his intention to run for governor in Oyo, recalling how he lost to the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde in 2019 and 2023.
“I have now paid my dues. I contested against Seyi (Makinde) in 2019. In 2023, I also contested against Seyi, then as the sitting governor. But in 2027, God has shown that it’s our turn. It’s Adelabu’s turn. Anything that belongs to Adelabu belongs to us all,” he said.
But as he prepares for another political contest, the state of Nigeria’s power sector under his watch is drawing increasing attention, with many Nigerians lamenting persistent blackouts and unstable electricity supply. Here are some of the issues with power sector under Adelabu’s leadership.
Generation far below capacity
Nigeria’s electricity generation has remained significantly below its installed capacity. The country has about 13,625 megawatts (MW) of installed generation capacity, yet only a fraction of that power typically reaches consumers. Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) shows that in October 2025, only 5,506MW was actually wheeled through the grid at any given time—less than half of installed capacity.
In early 2026, NERC reported that the national grid was operating with an average of 4,901MW available for dispatch, representing a plant availability factor of just 36 per cent.
Energy analysts say this gap between installed capacity and actual generation reflects longstanding structural problems in the power sector, including gas supply shortages, ageing infrastructure, and financial instability across the electricity value chain.
In fact, a report on the sector found that over 60 per cent of installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch to the grid during the third quarter of 2025, highlighting the limited operational readiness of many power plants.
Recurring grid collapse
Apart from generation challenges, Nigeria’s national grid has also experienced persistent instability. Data compiled from regulatory reports shows that the grid has suffered 26 system collapses in the last five years, with 2024 alone accounting for nine of those incidents.
Several of these collapses plunged large parts of the country into darkness for hours, sometimes days, disrupting businesses and public services. Analysts say the collapses reflect deep weaknesses in transmission infrastructure and coordination across the electricity supply chain.
In September 2025, for example, the national grid suffered a major outage triggered by a generator failure, causing a widespread drop in electricity load across the country before gradual restoration began.
The Transmission Company of Nigeria has attributed some of these disruptions to vandalism, technical failures, and insufficient investment in grid infrastructure. But industry experts say the frequency of outages underscores the fragility of the country’s electricity system.
Tariff reforms and rising costs
During Adelabu’s tenure, the government has also pursued tariff reforms aimed at reducing electricity subsidies and improving sector revenue.
In 2025, the federal government introduced targeted tariff increases for higher-consumption customers, particularly those classified under the so-called Band A category, who are expected to receive at least 20 hours of electricity supply daily.
According to government figures, the policy helped generate an additional ₦700 billion in revenue and contributed to a 35 per cent reduction in electricity subsidy payments.
However, the tariff increases have also drawn criticism from consumer groups who argue that higher electricity bills have not translated into significantly improved service.
Many households and small businesses say they continue to experience prolonged outages despite paying higher tariffs.
Structural debt, gas shortages
Nigeria’s power sector also faces severe financial constraints that affect electricity supply.
Industry estimates reported by Reuters suggest the sector is burdened with over ₦6 trillion in accumulated debts, largely driven by unpaid government subsidies and liquidity problems within the electricity market.
These financial difficulties have contributed to reduced gas supply to power plants—the main source of electricity generation in Nigeria. Gas-fired stations require around 1.63 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day, but in early 2026, they were receiving only about 692 million cubic feet, or roughly 43 per cent of the required supply.
The shortage has forced system operators to implement load shedding to keep the grid stable, further reducing the amount of electricity available to consumers.
Persistent reliance on generators
Nigeria’s electricity supply remains far below the demand of its more than 200 million people.
Experts estimate that the country would require at least 20,000MW of reliable electricity to meet current demand, yet actual supply often falls below 5,000MW.
This persistent gap has forced businesses, hospitals, and households to rely heavily on petrol and diesel generators, significantly raising operating costs.
According to industry observers, the economic impact of unreliable electricity runs into billions of dollars annually through lost productivity, damaged equipment, and higher energy costs.
Workers’ welfare concerns
Meanwhile, tensions are also rising within the power sector workforce.
Earlier this month, the National Union of Electricity Employees (NUEE) said it had intensified mobilisation of its members nationwide for a possible strike following the expiration of its 21-day ultimatum to the federal government.
In a letter dated January 26, 2026 and addressed to the Minister of Power, the union accused power sector employers—particularly distribution companies (DISCOs) and generation companies (GENCOs)—of widespread anti-labour practices, wage violations, and failure to remit deducted Pay As You Earn (PAYE) taxes and pension contributions.
With the ultimatum now expired and no resolution reached, union sources say mobilisation is ongoing across the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), raising the possibility of industrial action that could disrupt electricity generation and distribution nationwide.
As Adelabu’s potential governorship bid in Oyo State gains attention, his record at the Ministry of Power casts a shadow on his competence and capacity.
Nurudeen Akewushola is an investigative reporter and fact-checker with The ICIR. He believes courageous in-depth investigative reporting is the key to social justice, accountability and good governance in society. You can reach him via nyahaya@icirnigeria.org and @NurudeenAkewus1 on Twitter.