ON January 28, 2025, a curious post surfaced on the social media on a page with over 38,000 followers. Apparently referring to perceived internal wrangling within Aso Rock Villa, the post quoted Nigeria’s Vice President, Kashim Shettima as lamenting that, “It feels like I am only in office to appease the North and prevent political instability…”

Although a fact-check later reviewed the post with a verdict titled: “No proof that Nigerian vice presidentShettima suggested internal struggles in the presidency,” signals and soundbites emanating from the seat of power have indicated a ‘no smoke without fire’ scenario.

Against this backdrop, when Hakeem Baba Ahmed unceremoniously threw in the towel as the Political Adviser to Vice President Shettima, not a few political watchers, viewed it as another symptom affirming the perception that there is no more love lost between President Bola Tinubu and his Vice, Shettima.

Although he cited personal reasons, the political adviser’s sudden resignation equally raised questions about internal dynamics within the polity, especially against the backdrop of the next general elections.

A political pressure group, Kaduna Solidarity Vanguard, had insisted that the former NEF spokesperson resigned on the heels of a realisation that the Vice President himself has been sidelined by President Bola Tinubu.

In a statement signed by its Chairman, Lawal Tanimu, the group said that Baba-Ahmed’s recent political manoeuvring raised significant concerns regarding the gullibility of the northern populace.

“It is important to highlight that Baba-Ahmed’s departure comes on the heels of a realisation that the Vice President himself has been sidelined in the current political landscape,” Tanimu said.

Checks by The ICIR reveal that Baba Ahmed became uncomfortable because, like his principal, he was becoming a mere shadow at the seat of power. It was gathered that the former spokesperson of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF) had his functions severely restricted as he was not given any schedule and befitting office in the villa.

“As an outspoken person, he could not even engage the media on the VP’s political perspectives; he was virtually a glorified desk officer in the office,” a source told The ICIR.

According to the source, who sought identity protection because of the sensitive nature of the matter, the political adviser’s plight as well as other staff of his principal reflected the low esteem with which the VP is being regarded in the presidency.

To many analysts, therefore, Shettima’s lamentation as exemplified by the social media post as well as the political adviser’s resignation were among enduring symptoms that the gulf between the president and his vice had reached the point of a fingernail biting hysteria.

Although the ruling APC has ruled out any rift even as the President and his vice are carrying on as if there are no qualms, sources in the presidency have described unfolding events at the seat of power as an indication that Tinubu and Shettima have become political strange bedfellows.

“Tinubu no longer trusts or have confidence in his Vice President whom he had picked as a running mate despite heavy criticisms over same faith ticket,” said a source.

Recall that following his emergence as the APC Presidential ticket bearer after defeating Rotimi Amaechi, a former Rivers State governor and Minister of Transportation; former Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo; ex-Senate President, Ahmad Lawan; and ex- Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, among others, Tinubu was faced with the delicate choice of choosing his running mate.

In order to beat the June 17, 2022, deadline set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for presidential candidates to submit names of their deputies, Tinubu had quietly submitted his forms with the inclusion of Kabir Ibrahim Masari as a ‘placeholder’(running mate). A relative of former Katsina State governor and ex-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Masari had served as the National Welfare Secretary during the tenure of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole as the ruling party’s national chairman.

In spite the outrage from some quarters over the suitability of the APC running with a Muslim-Muslim, including within the ruling APC, Tinubu eventually settled for Shettima. A former Governor of Borno State from 2011 to 2019, Shettima who later served as the Senator representing Borno North was the Director General of the Tinubu Presidential Campaign Organisation. He was one of the financial backers of Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket.

In a bid to promote Tinubu’s candidature in the build-up to the APC presidential primary in 2022, Shettima had caused a political stir when he reportedly said the then vice president Yemi Osinbajo-one of the co-contestants for the APC presidential ticket- was too nice to be a leader because nice people should be selling “ice cream”.

“Osinbajo is a good man. He is a nice man. But nice men don’t make a good leader. Nice men should be selling popcorn and ice cream,” he said, in a statement, he later recanted saying he was misquoted.

While defending his choice of Shettima, during a visit to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Daura, Tinubu said he opted for the former Borno State chief executive as his running mate because he is “competent and reliable”.

“Here is where politics ends, and true leadership must begin. Today, I announce my selection with pride because I have made it not based on religion or to please one community or the other. I made this choice because I believe this is the man who can help me bring the best governance to all Nigerians, period, regardless of their religious affiliation or considerations of ethnicity or region.”

However, not too long after the pomp and ceremony that greeted their inauguration on May 29, 2023, signs began to emerge suggesting that there was trust deficit and decline in the relationship between the President and his Vice.

A source privy to the issues confided in The ICIR that things got so bad to the level that the president hardly met Shettima face-to-face even as the Vice-President was said to have been placed only on a “need to know’’ basis on sensitive polices.

“Even at that not all the details of such policies were disclosed to him as his memos and those of his staff were subjected to levels of scrutiny and toned down such that when they eventually got to the president’s desk for his attention, they were devoid of their essence and meaning,” said the source who pleaded anonymity.

Another source familiar with the matter said all Ministers and appointees of the presidency were restricted from giving the Vice President detailed briefs on their tasks even as they tried to limit their involvement with him to a cursory level.

Like Osinbajo, unlike Shettima

Unfolding development at the presidency have prompted some analysts to draw parallels between Shettima’s current experiences and those of Yemi Osinbajo, a professor and Vice President under the immediate past administration of President Buhari.

The Nigerian Constitution recognises and specifies roles for the Vice President in the functioning of the administration. However, in reality the VP’s relevance can only be subject to the president’ disposition.

For instance, although the constitution provides for the VP to chair the National Economic Council (NEC) made up of state governors, the president can make the council irrelevant. This is what happened when Shettima as head of the NEC led the governors to present their inputs on the Tax Reform bill. Tinubu curtly told them he preferred his own version which he would send to the National Assembly.

Observers say reverse was the case with Osinbajo who was in full charge of the NEC as its chair and did not only recommend but actively implemented economic and social programmes running into billions of naira.

“Apart from not being allowed such powers under Tinubu, Shettima has literarily had the door shut firmly against him with regards to economic and social matters which the constitution grants him,” one observer said.

Other observers have drawn the comparison that unlike Tinubu, President Buhari had given Osinbajo the support and trust to be the face of his government, frequently representing him at public and private occasions.

The First Lady, Ribadu factor

Two prominent figures in the Villa fingered to be pulling the strings over the severance in the relationship between the president and his vice are the First Lady, Remi Tinubu, and the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu.

Sources in the Villa said the First Lady is among those close to President Tinubu who have been made to believe that Shettima is an unreliable VP who patronises marabouts for political capital. Remi is said to have severally confronted the vice president, accusing him of plotting against her husband.

Added to this is the role of the Ribadu who is believed to weigh more influence in the presidency than the vice president. Ribadu, who hails from the same region with Shettima, is said to have ingratiated himself in the presidency to the extent that many believe he is undermining the vice president and scheming to replace him in 2027.

His perceived scheming is coming amid the push by some political stakeholders from the North for Tinubu to replace his same faith ticket with another running mate in 2027. This is even as there are growing demands from the North Central zone for either the presidency or vice in 2027.

At a recent press conference in Abuja, representatives from Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, and Kwara States, led by Nghargbu K’tso, a professor, urged major political parties to zone their presidential or vice-presidential tickets to the region.

In a communiqué issued after their meeting, the stakeholders argued that if APC grants Tinubu the “right of first refusal” for the presidential ticket, the vice-presidential slot should be allocated to North Central.

Maintaining that since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, North Central has yet to produce a democratically elected president or vice president, Nghargbu said, “Of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, only North Central and South East have not occupied the positions of president or vice president in the past 26 years of the Fourth Republic.”

No rift between Tinubu, Shettima – APC

The All Progressive Congress (APC) has refuted claims of a rift between President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima, dismissing speculation that Tinubu is considering a new running mate for the 2027 elections.

The ICIR reports that Tinubu has not formally declared his bid for a second term, but his loyalists and key party stakeholders have begun mobilising support for his re-election. The presidency has distanced itself from series of billboards promoting a 2027 re-election campaign for President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima.

The APC National Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, dismissed the reports as baseless, saying, “This is pure speculation without foundation. These are beer-parlour discussions that should not be taken seriously.”

“Even if for any reason the president were to consider replacing the vice president, he cannot do so singlehandedly. Such a decision would require extensive consultation with critical stakeholders,” he reportedly said.

‘Next level’ or ‘next casualty’, will Tinubu sacrifice Shettima?

Although Shettima may not have committed any weighty official breaches of official protocol in the presidency, checks indicate that his approval rating from his zone may have waned. Apart from being accused of not attracting development projects to his region, critics say the Muslim-Muslim ticket has not benefitted the poor masses of the area.

“Aside from the current economic hardship in the country, just take a look at the appointments in the administration and you will realise that the Christians are the ones enjoying most,” said a political commentator from the North-East who wouldn’t want his name in print.

The pertinent question is whether Tinubu will retain or dump Shettima as his running mate in 2027.

Tinubu faces a delicate choice in what to do with VP Shettima. Going by his body language, he is obviously not enamoured with the VP and may not retain him as his running mate in the next general elections.

But some analysts say that dropping the VP off the ticket presents a very delicate and dangerous political manoeuvre. “Having navigated the difficult challenges of the 2023 presidential race with Shettima and won, removing Shettima now would amount to a tactical political miscalculation,” a political analyst said.

Dare Glinstone Akiniyi, spokesperson of the opposition PDP National Youth Group, reportedly said President Tinubu could replace Shettima in a bid to garner support from northern Christians and the north-central region ahead of the 2027 polls.

He, however, said that such a move could lead to a fresh crisis even within the ruling APC. According to him, Shettima’s substitution would reflect desperation and political miscalculation amid the north-central’s demand for inclusivity in the current government and nation’s leadership.

“He said, “President Tinubu is likely to substitute VP Shettima ahead of 2027. He needs to capture northern Christians and the north-central. Unfortunately this will cause another trouble for the APC.

“I will advise him to stick to his current choice, so as to have a moderate defeat tin 2027, as against a new running mate and loosing woefully.”

Another question arises as to who would likely replace Shettima that will give Tinubu the political traction with northern voters? Ribadu is among the names that have been thrown into the equation in the event that Tinubu keeps the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Others include a former governor of Kano State and National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje and a former Kano State Governor and chieftain of the NNPP, Musa Kwankwaso.

Some analysts posit that anybody Tinubu chooses to replace Shettima now will be a hard sell to northern voters because the mere fact of replacing Shettima with another figure will reinforce the feeling that Tinubu cannot be trusted to respect political agreements. This could even rupture the ruling APC.

Christian/Muslim ticket?

There are also talks that President Tinubu may change tack and go for a Muslim/Christian ticket. Names like former Speaker Yakubu Dogara, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Boss Mustapha, or a senator, Simon Lalong have been touted as options on the cards.

However, an analyst said If Tinubu is not sure of huge northern Christian votes to tip the scales in his favour he had better think twice about this option as, according to the source, “This is political suicide to say the least.”

Amid Shettima’s political fate hanging in the balance ahead of the 2027 election is Tinubu’s dilemma in making a decision that will either make or mar his next presidential ambition. Will he retain the same faith ticket or bow to pressure from Christians in the North Central who are demanding for change? The pertinent question remains: Will Tinubu dump Shettima in 2027? Only the vicissitude of time can tell.

Fidelis Mac-Leva

Fidelis Mac-Leva is the Deputy Editor of The ICIR/Head of Investigation. He has previously worked with several media outfits in Nigeria, including DAILY TIMES and DAILY TRUST. A compellingly readable Features writer, his forte is Public Interest Journalism which enables him to "comfort the afflicted and afflict the comforted..." He can be reached via fmacleva@icirnigeria.org, @FidelisLeva on X