ON May 29, 2015, the inauguration ceremony of Governor Nasir El-rufai in Kaduna State was disrupted by some aggrieved youths who were reported to have pelted dignitaries with objects at the pavilion of Murtala Square, Kaduna.

The chaos erupted as El-rufai, who had just concluded his speech, was about to inspect a police parade, prompting security forces to deploy tear gas to disperse the crowd

Fast-forward to eight years later, on May 25, 2023, a few days to the end of his second tenure, terrorists fleeing from neighbouring Zamfara State abducted an unspecified number of residents in Birnin-Gwari LGA of Kaduna, within the time frame of these two incidents, El-rufai had administrated as the governor of the northwest state where violent killings and kidnapping had become a plague in many communities.

The ICIR gathered that more than 4,800 people had been killed in various insecurity crises that persisted in the state. 

According to filtered data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), between May 29, 2015, and May 29, 2023, when El-rufai governed the state for eight years a total of 1,660 insecurity incidents were reported in the state that led to the death of 4,876 people.

To put this into better perspective, if the number of deaths was divided by the number of days El-rufai spent as governor of the state, it means approximately two persons were killed daily during his tenure. 

A look through the data gathered showed that insecurity crisis and related killings were more predominant in El-Rufai’s second tenure as governor than in the first four years.

While giving his inauguration speech after his re-election in 2019, he said, “This government has spent much on internal security operations, supporting the security agencies with equipment, vehicles with other logistics and funding.

“The huge resources that are expended on these internal security operations and containing conflict can be better directed towards improving lives in peaceful communities. 

“We have also established the Kaduna State Peace Commission, chaired by Reverend Dr. Josiah Idowu-Fearon, Secretary-General of the Anglican Communion Worldwide and former Archbishop of Kaduna. Beyond boots on the ground, the most sustainable guarantee of peace is the willingness of communities to live in harmony.”

However, according to the ACLED data, between May 29, 2015 and the end of 2019, a total of 1,432 people were reportedly killed. Note that the first tenure of the governor ended on May 29, 2019. 

However, between 2020 and when El-rufai handed over governance to Uba Sani, on May 29, 2023, the death reported rose to 3,444. This is twice the fatality rate recorded in the first four years of his administration.

In 2021, El-rufai, while explaining what the state government had done to combat insecurity, lamented that the failure to sustain cooperation among northern states contributed largely to insecurity in the region.

At this time, the fatality rate recorded in Kaduna had consistently increased from 2019 to 2022. 

The former governor later came out in October 2022 to confess that despite the effort of the state government to end the crises, the federal government which should be in charge of security seems to have abdicated its duties.

“I can tell you that we have done our best to tackle insecurity in Kaduna State but we are being hampered by the structure which lies with the federal government. You may call this resignation, you may call it surrender but it is not abdication,” he said in an interview. 

Only 5 local governments were safe

Further to analysis of the insecurity data across the 23 local government areas in the state showed that only five local governments were safe during the administration of El-rufai for eight years.

These are: Jaba, Kubau, Kudan, Makarfi and Soba. While Kudan and Soba recorded no deaths for the eight years, Makarfi and Kubau had two deaths recorded each and Jaba had only one reported case. 

Hotspots

On the other hand, local governments like Birnin Gwari, Kajuru, Chikun, Giwa and Zangon Kataf were hotspots for insecurity recording a death rate between 400 to 800 cases within the former governor’s tenure. 

Deaths recorded under El-rufai administration during eight years in office. Source: ACLED

This simply means that for every one person who died in Kubau or Makarfi, at least 409 people had been killed in Birnin Gwari LGA 

Recall that The ICIR documented how multiple kidnappings that led to the abduction of school children were reported in the state in 2021. By our collation, a sum of 212 school children were abducted in the state from March to July 2021. 

Expert lists factors

A professor of political science at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Freedom Onuoha, who spoke to The ICIR, said “I feel that his policy of appeasing armed herdsmen with financial settlement rather than prosecuting them was one of the factors that exacerbated ethno-religious disputes and by extension the circle of extreme violence in the state.

“In addition, his official posture is often brash and divisive rather than accommodating and conciliatory. This inflamed passion in a state known for longstanding ethnoreligious tension.”

Are there changes now?

El-rufai handed over the administration to Uba Sani on May 29, 2023.  The ICIR reported that Sani promised to work with other governors in Nigeria to make state police a reality as part of an effort to stem the tide of insecurity in the state.

Although insecurity crises persisted, especially bandit attacks in communities including kidnappings, The ICIR gathered that the data for death cases reported under the new governor after spending one year in office was more than the rate recorded under the former governor in his first two years in office.

Death cases recorded under one year of Uba Sani as governor of Kaduna Source: ACLED

From the data gathered, between May 29 2023 and May 29, 2024, one year of Sani as governor of the state, a total of 630 insecurity-related deaths have been recorded. Within one year, Birnin Gwari, Igabi and Kajuru had the highest death rate recorded.

The ICIR investigated how over 100 students were kidnapped in Kuriga town in Kaduna state in March 2024.

Sani has bemoaned how the insecurity crises affect education in the state saying that state policing is the only way to address the crises. 

Kehinde OGUNYALE

Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at [email protected] (jameskennyogunyale@gmail) or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames