STAKEHOLDERS in the security sector have declared that a better economy, improved welfare for security agencies, intelligence gathering, and provision of modern equipment, among other things, will play a key role in Nigeria achieving better security in 2025.
This came after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its latest Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey report, which revealed that Nigerians paid N2.23 trillion to kidnappers as ransom in 12 months.
In the report, the NBS revealed that Nigerian households experienced an estimated 51.89 million crime incidents within the period.
The North-West region topped the list with 14.4 million reported cases, followed by the North-Central region with 8.8 million incidents. Meanwhile, the South-East region recorded the lowest number of crimes, with 6.18 million incidents, according to the report.
The report also raised concerns about the effectiveness of Nigeria’s security agencies, particularly the police, in responding to emergencies. More worrisome is the part of the report that says no fewer than 614,937 Nigerians were killed across the country during the same period.
The NBS disclosed this on Tuesday, December 17, saying the report was based on the surveys conducted between May 2023 and April 2024.
Experts weigh in
A security expert, Salihu Dantata Mohammed, who is the director of Security at Salute Nigeria Initiative and a security analyst Senator Iroegbu, bear their minds on key areas that can aid peace in the coming year.
Mohammed said security agencies must combine and collaborate to enhance intelligence gathering and exploit the ownership involvement through non-kinetic measures where the inhabitants of troubled areas and non-state actors operate.
“These include sharing of intelligence and also voluntary contribution, like the civilian joint task force did in Borno State at the advent of the dreaded Boko Haram terrorist group.
He also harped on the need for a better welfare for both the officers and men of the security agencies carrying out onslaughts against insurgency and armed banditry as well as unknown gunmen in the southeast.
According to Iroegbu, security in 2025 is unpredictable but it may improve if the economy is stable. He maintained that with the way things are going in the country, especially with the coming on board of Dangote Refinery and others, the economy might stabilise, leading to a reduction in crime and other petty criminal activities.
Iroegbu affirmed that whether crime and criminality will reduce in the coming year depends on how the government handles the economy.
“If the economy is stable, it might reduce crimes like kidnapping and armed robbery a bit. If the economy picks up, backed by intelligence-based operations, it might reduce insecurity,” Iroegbu said.
All eyes on the Sahel region
Iroegbu also emphasised the need to closely keep an eye on what happens in the Sahel region in the coming year to achieve security stability.
Africa’s Sahel region is a transnational area between the savannah and grasslands to the south and the Sahara Desert to the north. Senegal, Sudan, Niger, Chad, Mali, and Mauritania are just a few of the nations it crosses.
Nigeria places strategic importance on the Sahel because of its location between sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and the possibility of being affected by any breakout of crisis in the region.
Among the many issues facing the Sahel region is terrorism, such as Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, violence, and poverty, which plays a big impact on Nigeria’s security stability.
“In 2025, we need to stay focused on what is going on in the Middle East and the effect on terrorist activities in the Sahel region and how it might likely snowball because what is happening in Syria is similar to what is happening in the Sahel region.
“This is a region that is regarded today as the epicentre of terrorism. and with the recent emergence of a new terrorist group, Lakurawa, which snowballed into Nigeria from Niger. Nigeria should keep an eye on that region to achieve security stability,” Iroegbu said.
He added that groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra have connections with other extremist groups, including Al-Qaeda, which can facilitate resource sharing and ideology spreading across other countries like Nigeria if not watched.
To avert a crisis, he called for a comprehensive approach involving community engagement and dialogue to address these challenges.
Terrorism and Banditry in 2025
On the activities of terrorists, Iroegbu said there should be an effort to make sure it doesn’t get out of hand, adding that the nation should be on alert and not be caught napping.
On the activities of bandits, which is a huge security issue in the northwest of Nigeria, Iroegbu said it is linked to terrorism and predicted there might be a lull in their activities in 2025 but urged the authorities to be on the alert.
Tax Reform Bill controversy and the politics of the 2027 election
According to the experts, the tax reform bill, which is currently before the National Assembly, might snowball into a crisis if not well handled.
The controversial bill has pitched the north against other parts of the country in recent months but according to Iroegbu, that is another place we need to watch to avoid ethnic and religious clashes in 2025.
“We know what the tax reform bill is. We know how the North feels about it so it might come in the form of a political riot or whatever. So it depends on how the government manages it,” he said.
The 2027 election is still almost two years away but according to Iroegbu, from this year, there will be an increase in political activities towards the general election and this might lead to a political crisis if not well handled.
“We are entering the second to third year of the current administration. It means the election should be around the corner so we should watch out for political and ethno-religious protests and clashes and the policy of the government, like the tax reform bill. It is imperative how the government handles it,” he said.
Security in the Southeast and Niger Delta
According to both Salihu and Iroegbu, the government and security agencies should take the security of the Southeast very seriously in the coming year.
Iroegbu described the situation in the region as “uneasy calm” and said the government must ensure that it gives the people of the region a sense of belonging to avoid violence.
He also appealed to the government to dialogue with the leaders of the region and seek a political solution to the case of the detained leader of IPOB, Nnamdi Kanu.
“In the Southeast, the issue of Nnamdi Kanu should be resolved once and for all. A political solution should be embraced,” he said.
Iroegbu stated that the government has been able to manage security well in the oil-rich Niger Delta and urged the authorities to sustain it.
Intelligence gathering is key
Security experts agreed that for Nigeria to enjoy relative peace in 2025, security agencies should embark on more intelligence-led operations.
According to Mohammed, improved synergy, collaborations, and enhanced intelligence gathering and sharing amongst the security agencies will help maintain security in 2025.
“The resumed collaboration in the multinational task force will also be an added advantage,” he said.
As for Iroegbu, intelligence gathering needs to be heightened to observe what is happening in the Sahel region.
“We have to deepen our geopolitics knowledge and trends of events to be able to connect the dots,” he said.
Other key issues that will determine security in 2025
Other key issues raised by the experts to prevent insecurity in 2025 include inclusive policies, the government not muscling opposition voices, a comprehensive security sector reform and regional cooperation.
They also listed proper management of human rights issues, a genuine fight against corruption, constant availability of fuel at affordable prices and availability of modern gadgets like drones and mine-resistant vehicles for security agents to fight crime.
A reporter with the ICIR
A Journalist with a niche for quality and a promoter of good governance
Nice report! I also have a strong believe that improved welfare for security agencies and provision of modern equipment can play a key role in Nigeria achieving better security in 2025