THE Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has estimated economic growth of 5.5 per cent for the 2026 fiscal year, while emphasising that a productive economy would guarantee the realisation of the projected figure.
The economic advisory group also warned the Federal Government against reversing its core policies of fuel subsidy removal and floating the exchange rate.
This was disclosed during the launch of the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled ‘Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria’, of the group on Thursday, January 15.
In addition to the projected figures, the NESG projected a surge in foreign reserves to $52 billion, while warning that the next 18 months represented a critical window to prevent a policy reversal.
In his opening remarks, the NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf, pointed out that while recent structural reforms had been necessarily painful, they were merely the beginning of a longer journey.
“Nigeria has just emerged from one of the most disruptive adjustment periods in its recent economic history,” Yusuf stated.
Yusuf clarified that economic stabilisation did not equate to prosperity, stressing that “Growth remains modest and uneven, driven by a narrow set of sectors with weak transmission to employment and household incomes.”
He also warned that the nation must now focus on the “hard work” of the next phase, which focuses on consolidating the gains of the reforms for sustainable and inclusive growth.
“Skipping steps in reforms may come at a cost, and confusing one phase for another may lead to policy inconsistency and reform fatigue,” he cautioned.
In providing the technical roadmap for the year ahead, NESG Chief Economist, Olusegun Omisakin, presented a framework designed to move the ‘patient’ from stabilisation to acceleration.
“The challenge now is that we are no longer in a state of crisis, as referenced by the chairman. The present situation allows us to look critically at how we optimise the gains we’ve seen so far,” Omisakin said.
While setting clear benchmarks for 2026, he announced: “This year, we are projecting 5.5 per cent [GDP growth], inflation around 16 per cent for the whole year, and our reserves to jump to 52 billion US dollars.” He added that for long-term stability, “Our inflation targeting should be looking at single digits by 2029.”
Omisakin noted that the current reliance on the services sector, which accounts for 60 per cent of GDP, is insufficient.
He stressed the need to focus more on strengthening structural transformation by identifying the role of agriculture and manufacturing in the economy.
“If we manage the consolidation process very well, evidence suggests that we can grow the manufacturing sector by six per cent to eight per cent, especially if it is well linked with agriculture,” he said.
Despite optimism by the NESG on 5.5 per cent projected economic figures, economic watchers say Nigeria’s inability to fund its budget optimally would create problems and could hinder the achievement of the estimated figure.
Nigeria has carried over 70 per cent of its 2025 budget into 2026, raising unanswered questions about the government’s inability to meet its projected revenue of N40 trillion, of which it could realise only at N10 trillion. A large portion of this amount would still go into debt servicing.
“The budget implementation is still a big problem, and the budget office needs to do better. We also have to focus on an export-led growth strategy which has the power to pull people away from poverty through targeted exports as we are now consolidating on the gains of the reforms,” a development economist, Ken Ife, a professor, told The ICIR.
He cautioned that the services sector, driving the growth at 60 per cent, was not enough unless the manufacturing sector, through value-addition, offered more opportunities for wealth creation.
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.