A clear winner is unlikely to emerge in the Nigerian presidential election of February 25, according to Nextier Poll, an Africa-focused consulting firm.
A statement by the firm said its prediction was based on the results of the opinion poll it conducted on January 27.
From the results, Nextier stated, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, is likely to emerge with the highest number of votes. The votes would, however, not be enough for him to emerge victorious in the first ballot and would have to face either the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, or that of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ahmed Bola Tinubu, in a run-off.
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The firm stated that from the results of its survey polled on a sample size of 3,000 voters, Obi polled 37 per cent of the respondents, followed by Abubakar with 27 per cent, while Tinubu got 24 per cent.
The poll acknowledged that although Obi had the highest poll, it is unlikely to give him outright victory in the first ballot.
The founding partner of Nextier, Partner O. Okigbo, noted in the report that the presidential election was shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades.
The current poll is the second Nextier had conducted on the 2023 presidential election.
The first poll released on November 20, 2022 conducted in rural communities in 12 states across Nigeria gave Obi 40.37 per cent of survey respondents.
Abubakar got 26.7 per cent, while Bola Tinubu got 20.47 per cent, with about 7.16 per cent of the respondents undecided, according to the first poll.
The Director of Media and Publicity of the APC Presidential campaign Council, Bayo Onanuga, however, questioned the methodology of the Nextier polls.
According to the official statement from Onanuga, the distribution of the sample neither reflected voter demographics nor variations in voter turn-out across states.
He pointed out that the sample of 3,000 used in the methodology was too insignificant in an election with over 93 million registered voters, and which admitted greater margins of error in the poll.
He also accused the consulting firm of being partisan, alleging that it was an active campaigner for the Labour Party presidential candidate.
“This is apart from the fact that the sample size of the so-called poll and methodology employed cannot stand any integrity test,” Onanuga stated.
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.