THE much-anticipated Dangote Petroleum Refinery initial public offering has triggered an unprecedented rush among Nigerian retail investors, with digital investment platforms confirming that heavy traffic to its platform temporarily made it difficult for some users to log in.
The development came on Monday as the N2.15 trillion public offer opened to investors, marking one of the biggest share offerings in Nigeria’s capital market and Africa’s largest initial public offering.
Digital platforms like Bamboo and Cowrywise said the difficulty accessing its platform was caused by traffic that was higher than anticipated as investors attempted to subscribe for shares in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.
Bamboo on X wrote “Hey everyone, we’re getting a much higher than expected traffic trying to get into the Dangote IPO and it’s making it difficult for some users to log into the Bamboo app. We’re working on a fix, and it will be up and running shortly.”
Similarly, Cowrywise wrote in a post on X, “We’re currently seeing more traffic than usual on the Cowrywise app. Our team is already on it and working to get things back to normal. Thanks for your patience, everyone.”
The investment platform said it was working to resolve the problem and restore normal access.
The rush highlights the enormous retail interest generated by the offer, which has been promoted as an opportunity for ordinary Nigerians to become shareholders in one of Africa’s biggest industrial projects.
The offer comprises 4.1 billion new ordinary shares at a fixed price of N525 each. If fully subscribed, the offer will raise about N2.15 trillion for the refinery. The minimum subscription is 10 shares, costing N5,250. The offer opened on September 14 and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026.
The shares represent about 3.3 per cent of the refinery’s enlarged share capital following the offer, meaning the vast majority of the company will remain outside the public offer.
The company says dividends are not guaranteed and will depend, among others, on its performance, cash requirements and board decisions.
The refinery has also warned investors that the value of its shares could rise or fall after listing and that investors could lose some or all of the money invested.
Investors scramble as debate grows
The rush has also generated a wave of discussion on social media, with investors and prospective shareholders divided between those describing the offer as a long-term opportunity and others warning against buying into the excitement surrounding the listing.
One X user, David Ayo, urged prospective investors to distinguish the stock market from schemes promising quick returns.
He argued that investors should not expect immediate dividends from the refinery, stressing that dividends are dependent on profitability, cash requirements and the decision of the company’s board.
Another prospective investor, identified as Olori, who said she is new to the stock market, asked whether putting N1 million into the offer would be advisable, illustrating the kind of retail participation the transaction is attracting.
But other investors are urging caution, as Onu Slim said after reviewing the prospectus that he was attracted by the refinery’s business and financial performance but was not blindly in love with the N525 offer price.
Slim, however, pointed to the valuation investors are being asked to accept and the risks associated with the business, including refining margins, crude supply, foreign exchange, regulation, global oil prices and execution of the refinery’s expansion plan.
He said his interest, if any, would be based on the expectation that the refinery can maintain high utilisation, generate strong cash flows and earn attractive returns on the enormous capital invested in the business.
The debate has also produced warnings against using borrowed money to participate in the offer, as Kris urged prospective investors not to borrow money to buy the shares, noting that loan interest is certain while investment returns are not.
Another user identified as Glorious said he had decided not to participate, arguing that the intensity of advertising, media coverage and notifications from investment applications had made him uncomfortable.
He questioned whether the enthusiasm surrounding the offer could cause retail investors to buy without adequately considering valuation and risk.
The ICIR reports that according to disclosures from its IPO prospectus, Dangote Refinery H1 2026 revenue reached about $13.9 billion, while profit after tax stood at about $1.82 billion. The company has moved from its earlier ramp-up phase to full-scale commercial production, with performance testing reaching 700,000 barrels per day in June.
The result represented a dramatic turnaround from the loss recorded previously as the refinery moved into large-scale commercial operations.
This means an investor applying for N1 million worth of shares cannot assume that the entire amount will necessarily translate into shares.
At N525 per share, N1 million would theoretically cover about 1,904 shares before considering the requirement to apply in the prescribed multiples. But the eventual number allotted could be lower if the offer is oversubscribed.
For example, the argument that the public is receiving only three per cent of the company is broadly based on the size of the offer but is imprecise. The official offer information puts the new shares at approximately 3.3 per cent of the enlarged share capital, rather than exactly three per cent.
The company also plans a major expansion that would increase its processing capacity from about 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. The expansion programme has been estimated at about $14.3 billion and IPO proceeds are expected to support the refinery’s expansion.
The transaction follows a $2.5 billion private equity placement completed by the refinery earlier this year with 3.7 times oversubscribed and attracted institutional and strategic investors, including the Africa Finance Corporation and other investors.
That earlier fundraising is significant because it demonstrates that institutional investors have already shown strong appetite for the refinery, although the terms and risk profile of a private placement are not identical to those facing retail investors in the IPO.
The rush comes against the background of an earlier warning from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
In June, the SEC ordered operators involved in unauthorised pre-marketing of the Dangote Refinery offer to stop soliciting subscriptions and warned members of the public against transferring money to operators for purported pre-IPO placements before regulatory approval.
Now that the offer has received regulatory approval, the refinery says investors should subscribe only through approved receiving agents and electronic application channels.
The official IPO website lists approved channels and warns investors against using unauthorised platforms.
Nanji is an investigative journalist with the ICIR. She has years of experience in reporting and broadcasting human angle stories, gender inequalities, minority stories, and human rights issues. She has documented sexual war crimes in armed conflict, sex for grades in Nigerian Universities, harmful traditional practices and human trafficking.