© 2018 - International Centre for Investigative Reporting
DATA: What figures say about the performance of outgoing two-term governors
THE 2019 general elections might have come and gone, though, leaving moments that tested the integrity of Nigerian democracy.
Nine states governors have served two terms as the chief executive officer of their respective states.
The governors were elected into office in 2011 and were re-elected in 2015.
These governors are Kashim Shettima of Borno state, Ibrahim Dankwambo of Gombe state, Rochas Okorocha of Imo state, Abdul-Fatah Ahmed of Kwara state,Tanko Al-Makura of Nasarawa state, Ibikunke Amosun of Ogun state, Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo state, Ibrahim Gaidam of Yobe state, and Abdul-Aziz Yari of Zamfara state.
Of the nine states, seven states, including, Borno, Imo, Nasarawa, Ogun, Oyo, Yobe, and Zamfara were controlled by the All Progressives Congress (APC) throughout the eight years, while Kwara state was controlled by the APC for seven years, the governor defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2018 and Gombe state was controlled by the PDP for the eight years.
This analysis aims to identify and check what some key indices of development were when they took over in 2011 and what those indices are now.
Some of the parameters identified by The ICIR include the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), debt profile, percentage of state income (IGR in addition with the Federal Account Allocation Committee, FAAC).
Internally Generated Revenue
The IGR which is the revenue that state governments generate within the areas of their jurisdiction comes from various sources such as taxes, fines, and fees, licenses, earnings and sales, rent on government property, interests and dividends, among others.
Today, the 36 states have two broad ways of generating revenue: internally, through taxes and levies and federally, through statutory allocations known as FAAC. The FG is constitutionally responsible for this statutory allocation.
As at third quarter of 2018, the last report on IGR as published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), five out of the nine states have been able to increase their internally revenue base with more than 100 percent from what it used to be in 2011. The states include Borno- 103 percent, Nasarawa- 106 percent, Ogun- 482 percent, Oyo- 105 percent, and Zamfara- 160 percent.
States like Gombe- 16 percent, Imo- 98 percent, Kwara- 82 percent, and Yobe- 21 percent recorded increase in their internally revenue base, however, below 100 percent for the eight years.
IGR, arguably, reflects the capacity of governors to harness what is within their control. Naturally, the onus is on state and local governments to ensure their ‘area of command’ is not over-reliant on the monthly federal allocation.
Public Debt Profile
Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) as of June 2018 shows that eight out of the nine states have increased their public debt – both domestic and foreign debt by at least 50 percent. The states are Borno, Gombe, Imo, Nasarawa, Ogun, Oyo, Yobe, and Zamfara. Only Kwara state’s debt profile reduced by 11 percent.
In 2011, Kwara state debt profile stood at $206.9 million, it reduced to $182.6 million. Obviously, the state either reduced its borrowing or paid off some of its debt.
Borno state increased its debt by an astronomical 1,060 percent. In 2011, the state’s debt was $23.8 million and now stands at $276.5 million. For Gombe state, in 2011, the debt profile stood at $74.6 million and now $176 million, an increase of 135.8 percent. In Imo state, the debt profile was $214.2 million in 2011, the debt currently stands at $341.3 million, an increase of 59.3 percent.
Nasarawa state in 2011 had a debt of $71.4 million, as at June 2018, the debt has increased to $292 million, which is an increase of 308.5 percent. Ogun state also increased its debt by 55.4 percent, from $289 million in 2011 to $449.4 million in 2018.
Oyo state debt increased by 261.9 percent from $109 million in 2011 to $394.8 million in 2018. For Yobe state, in 2011, the debt profile stood at $44.6 million, increased to $118 million in 2018, an increase of 164.3 percent.
Zamfara state in 2011 had a debt of $109.9 million and increased to $263.5 million, an increase of 139.6 percent as at June 2018.
Fiscal sustainability Index Analysis
According to the 2018 edition of the State of States Report released by BudgiT, a civil society organisation, it defines fiscal sustainability as the ability of a government to sustain its current spending, tax and other policies in the long run without threatening its solvency or defaulting on some of its liabilities or planned expenditures.
The report also measures the fiscal sustainability of the 36 states in the federation.
Three major indices were used in the scoring the state.
‘Index A’ assesses the ability of states to meet their recurrent expenditure obligation with state-owned revenue like value added tax, 13 percent derivation and IGR. ‘Index B’ analyses states’ ability to cover all recurrent expenditure obligations without resorting to borrowing, while ‘Index C’ focuses on states’ ability to manage their debts sustainably.
According to the report, fiscal sustainability index for these nine states is ‘woeful’. The report scored the index on a scale of 100.
Borno state scored 4.57, Gombe- 4.74, Imo- 6.09, Kwara- 5.31, Nasarawa- 4.57, Ogun- 7.82, Oyo- 4.37, Yobe- 5.07, and Zamfara- 5.67.
This clearly shows that these states among other states need to focus on boosting its IGR and simultaneously slow down on borrowing.
The states will also need to slash unreasonable overhead costs and link future borrowing to sustainable projects.
Note: Exchange rate for 2011 was N155 and currently stands at N305 to a dollar according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)