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How census postponement may stall accuracy in demographic data

NIGERIA might experience another delay in providing data across its demography due to the recent postponement of its 2023 Population and Housing Census.

The census was scheduled to hold between May 3 to May 7, but it was rescheduled to a new date to be determined by the incoming administration, which the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, would lead. 

The census, according to the National Population Commission, NPC, is expected to capture data across population classification, residence, relationships/household, migration, birth registration, literacy, nationality, persons living with disability, economic characteristics, fertility and mortality, housing and amenities as well as a section on information communication technology.


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Until a new date is announced and the census is conducted, Nigeria may be unable to provide accurate data for these key socioeconomic characteristics. The ICIR reported how the commission said data from the exercise would address problems in Nigeria.

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Experts also told The ICIR that the census, although long overdue, would help the government in proper planning regarding budget allocations.

Over time, the country works with estimated figures and projections released by international institutions, non-governmental organisations and data-research organisations that provide data based on independent research they have conducted. However, in some cases, these estimations contradict themselves. 

For instance, the last census in 2006 showed that Nigeria’s population was 140 million. By the United Nations recommendation, the country was supposed to hold another census in 2016 but failed to do it. In 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics published an estimated figure of  193 million after collating its data from secondary sources.

By 2021 the United Nations said that the population has risen to 211 million, but the World Bank website says Nigeria’s population was 213 million in the same year.

Now, Worldmeters, a reference website that provides countdown information on population and other demographic variables, say Nigeria’s population is around 221.6 million while the UN says the population is around 216 million, projected to rise to 223.8 million by mid-2023.

Other conflicting, stale data with estimated figures

The total fertility rate, which shows the number of children a woman bears over her entire childbearing years, is another unclear data in Nigeria. NBS report also shows that in 2015 Nigeria was 5.5 births per woman, but it increased in 2016 to 5.8, according to Nigeria Demography and Health Survey. 

Macro Trends, a data research platform, puts the figure at 5.076 as of 2023, but a report said this figure completely contradicts the country’s population estimation. 

On Nigeria’s literacy rate, the Ministry of Education revealed, in 2022, that the number of illiterate Nigerians was at an estimated 31 per cent. It was 38 per cent in 2021. However, another research organisation, Global Data, said that as of 2021 literacy rate of the country has reached 77.62 per cent, while World Bank and Macro Trends put the figure at 62 per cent in 2018. 

Also, Nigerian Living Standards Survey in 2019 said 72.3 per cent of females and 77.3 per cent of males in Nigeria aged 15-24 were literate in English but another data from Statista, a data research organisation, shows that around 72% of young women and 78% of young men in Nigeria were literate in English in the same year. 

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While some data are conflicting, some Nigerian agencies have failed to update their data for years, thus, forcing research organisations to publish estimated figures based on their study.

For instance, the country is still unclear as to how many Nigerians are unemployed since the last data released by NBS in 2020, which placed the unemployment rate at 33.3 per cent. 

A multinational consulting firm, KPMG, said it might increase to 40.6 per cent in 2023 from 37.7 per cent in the previous year, but the Nigerian Economic Summit Group said the figures would likely hit 37 per cent in 2023.

Also, according to the NPC, seven million births were registered in 2016, out of which 33.09 per cent of the births were registered before age one, 31.19 per cent were registered between age one and four; and 35.72 per cent were registered above age five years. But, a recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey in 2021 said that over 40 per cent of children are still unregistered in the country.



In 2018, an NDHS survey put the maternal mortality rate was 512 per 100,000 live births, but the UNICEF estimation shows that it had increased to 576 per 100,000 live births in 2022.

Getting accurate data 

Civic technologist and data protection expert Daniel Irabor said that having a census would help the country to produce accurate baseline data that can be synchronised to generate other important information.




     

     

    He said, “With the deployment of technology that the commission plans for us, it can help to increase accuracy and integrity. The census is fixing some problems an estimated figure would not fix.”

    According to Irabor, the census is the largest data collected in Nigeria and would require the participation of relevant data agencies to prioritise and protect information generated in the process.

    Meanwhile, Damilola Ojetunde, another data analyst, said the Vital Registration System applied in developed countries would be a better alternative as having an accurate figure is a yardstick for the country’s development.

    However, he noted that accurate data can only be gotten if the commission’s preparation is devoid of political interference.

    Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at jameskennyogunyale@gmail or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames | LinkedIn: Kehinde Ogunyale

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