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If data mattered in Nigeria, Mattawalle would not be Defence minister

PRIOR to his appointment as minister of state for defense, Bello Matawalle had administered Zamfara State as the governor between 2019 and 2023, the northwest state then and now has been plagued with insecurity. The ICIR’s Kehinde Ogunyale analysed the security fatalities across the state during his tenure as governor and now minister of state for defence.


Just three days after the former governor of Zamfara State, Bello Matawalle, assumed office in May 2019, eight people were killed and 18 others injured after bandits attacked the Lilo community, on the outskirts of Gusau, the state capital on Saturday, June 1, 2019. 

On that same day, there were media-reported clashes between Nigerian troops and a Zamfara communal militia in the Maru local government area, which led to the death of about eight of the militiamen. 

The then-newly-appointed governor decided to visit the Lilo community the next day, Sunday, and he was reportedly attacked by bandits who opened fire on his motorcade. 

There were conflicting reports on the incident during the visit. While some sources claimed that there were some casualties when security operatives escorting the governor returned fire at the bandits, the press secretary to the governor, Yusuf Idris, in a statement, said Matawalle led security operatives on an ‘operation’ to rout bandits from their hideouts.

The ICIR gathered that between May 29, 2019, and May 29, 2023, a total of 4,216 people were killed in 833 incidences recorded due to various insecurity incidents that rocked the state. 

To put this into better perspective, if the number of deaths was divided by the number of days Matawalle spent as governor of the state, it means approximately three persons were killed daily during his tenure.

The data was compiled from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). Of the total deaths reported during Matawalle’s tenure, at least 1,449 people were civilians.

A look through the data showed that 322 people were killed in 2019 from the time the governor assumed office in May until December.

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The fatality rate increased to 729 deaths in 2020 and by 2021 and 2022, the death recorded had risen to 1,456 and 1,470 respectively.

Meanwhile, between January and May 2023, when the governor left office, a total of 239 deaths were reported.

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YearsDeaths
2019 322
2020729
20211,456
20221,470
2023239
Total4,216

Table showing insecurity attacks during Matawalle’s tenure as Zamfara State governor. Source: ACLED

Unsafe LGAs during Matawalle’s tenure

The ICIR filtered the data across the 14 local government areas in the states to examine which LGAs recorded the highest death rate during Matawalle’s four-year tenure as governor.

These are Zurmi, Maradun, Talata Mafara, Gusau, Kaura Namoda, Bungudu, Chafe, Maru, Anka, Bukkuyum, Gummi, Bakura, Birin Magaji/Kiyaw and Shinkafi.

LGAsDeaths
Anka237
Bakura188
Bukkuyum535
Bungudu252
Gummi119
Gusau321
Kaura Fashion172
Kiyawa139
Maradun508
Maru669
Shinkafi194
Mafara’s tail126
Tsafe129
Zurmi627

Table showing the distribution of death cases by LGAs during Matawalle’s tenure as governor. Source: ACLED

Findings showed that the most affected LGAs were Maru, Zurmi, Bukkuyum and Maradun which recorded more than 500 deaths in four years. These records were extremely high compared to about six other local government areas that reported fewer than 200 deaths cases.

Matawalle’s pronouncements as governor

In March 2021, former president Muhammadu Buhari, through his National Security Adviser, declared a ‘no-fly zone’ in Zamfara State. Matawalle later came out to fault the order saying that the federal government lacked the understanding of the security situation in the state.

Some months later, another report revealed that when insecurity was at its peak in the state, Matawalle urged for the deployment of additional troops to combat the escalating insecurity, citing the slow response of security forces as a major contributor to the surge in banditry cases in the state.

The following year, 2022, the governor reportedly told his citizens to get guns to defend themselves against rising attacks by bandits as an act of self-defense. 

Despite all these actions, Zamafra was one of the states in the Northwest region with persistent insecurity crisis. The ICIR documented a total of 414 students who were also abducted in the states during his time as the governor. 

Poor education and insecurity

In 2019, a report captured how the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) claims Nigeria’s rising insecurity is largely due to the government’s neglect of education and failure to educate the masses. Three years later, this was corroborated by the former Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, who linked Nigeria’s falling education standard to the disturbing insecurity in the country.

Coincidentally, most out-of-school children are found in the northern region where insecurity crises are more predominant. Zamfara, for instance, ranks one of the highest with 61.3 per cent of its children out of school, according to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) report in 2022. The 2022 ranking increased from 41 per cent where the state ranked in NBS’s 2020 report.

To meet the Sustainable Development Goal 4 target of 2030, UNESCO recommended that at least 15 – 20 per cent of total public expenditure should be allocated to the education sector.

The ICIR went further to interrogate Zamfara’s allocation to the education sector during Matawalle’s tenure as governor.

YearTotal budgetEducation% diffrence 
2020N127.33 billionN1.29 billion1.01%
2021N142.78 billionN581.25 million0.41%
2022N159.48 billionN35.95 million0.02%
2023N184.87 billionN121.45 million0.07%

Table showing the comparison between total budget and education budget allocation under Matawalle. Source: Zamfara Budget

Findings showed that Matawalle consistently fell short of UNESCO’s education budget benchmark, allocating less than 1 per cent of the total budget to the education sector in subsequent budgets, except for his first approved budget in 2021.

The poor allocation can signal that the education sector was not a key focus in the former governor’s budgetary allocation during his tenure. The effect of this could increase the chances of out-of-school children, forcing these children to engage in illegal activities that could pose a threat within communities.

Matawalle as defence minister

In August 2023, President Bola Tinubu announced the appointment of Mattawalle as the minister of state for defense. The ICIR reported that his appointment was greeted with heavy criticism following the insecurity that plagued his tenure as governor. 

The Ministry of Defense is a government agency with the statutory responsibility of overseeing the defense profile of the country from the perspective of the armed forces. It supervises the defense headquarters, the services namely, army, navy and air force as well as tri-services institutions/parastates.

However, data gathered by The ICIR showed that in one year, over 7,000 people were reportedly killed in various insecurity attacks during Tinubu’s one year in office. 

The rising trend of insecurity depicts that the government is yet to clamp down on terrorism and banditry attacks in most parts of the country, especially with Matawalle’s appointment.

Recently, the federal government directed the minister of state for defense and other military chiefs to relocate to Sokoto State to intensify efforts to eliminate the menace of banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism in the North-West region. 

The government emphasized that the move was part of its strategy to combat the ongoing security challenges in the region. Several media reports captured that the military chiefs arrived in the states on Tuesday, September 3.  

Meanwhile, The ICIR ’s data showed that Sokoto is the fourth most terrorized state in the affected region. Between Tinubu’s assumption and August 23, 2024, more than a thousand people have been killed in Zamfara and Katsina.

Also, over 800 people have been killed in Kaduna, unlike Sokoto, with 423 death cases. 




     

     

    StatesFatalities 
    Jigawa15
    Kaduna827
    Kano19
    Katsina1,181
    Kebbi72
    Sokoto423
    Zamfara1,474
    Total4,011

    Table showing death rate in the North-West region between May 29 and August 23, 2024. Source: ACLED

    Whether or not this directive would reduce insecurity-related deaths in the North-West region remains to be seen but data shows that Zamfara, which suffered insecurity attacks during Matawalle’s time as governor, still tops the chart during his time as defense minister. 

    A recent report by SBM intelligence showed that Zamfara recorded the highest number of incidents with 1,639 victims kidnapped between July 2023 and June 2024. It was followed by Kaduna with 113 incidents and 1,113 victims, and Katsina reported 119 incidents with 887 victims.

    NOTE: A version of this report was earlier published HERE.

    Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at [email protected] (jameskennyogunyale@gmail) or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames

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