The World Bank Group has expressed optimism in Nigeria’s economic outlook, projecting a 3.6 per cent growth rate for 2025, an estimate that surpasses the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast of 3.0 per cent.

The IMF projected 3.2 per cent for the Nigerian economy earlier but later downgraded the economy projection to 3.0 per cent this year. It cited lower oil prices as the reason for downgrade.

The world bank based its growth projection on key macroeconomic reforms, which it asserted have begun stabilising the country’s business environment.

The ICIR can report that while the World Bank aims to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development through financial assistance and technical expertise, the IMF focuses on global monetary stability, providing loans to countries facing economic difficulties.

The former reflected this in its latest economic forecast contained in the Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, while the latter in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook report.

In its report, the IMF said, “Among the larger economies, the growth forecast in Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 0.3 percentage points for 2026, owing to lower oil prices, and that in South Africa is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 outturn, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, the intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”

The IMF 2025 projection is below the 3.4 per cent growth it estimated for 2024. Basing its reason on the impact of declining oil prices on Nigeria’s fiscal and external balances, it projected further that it would slow further to 2.7 per cent in 2026.

It said, even though Nigeria maintained a current account surplus, that its external position is expected to weaken in the coming years.

The IMF maintained that it remains pessimistic in its projections, estimating Nigeria’s current account balance to shrink from 6.9 per cent in 2025 and further to 5.2 per cent in 2026, from 9.1 per cent of gross domestic product in 2024.

In contrast, the World Bank projected recovery, anchoring it on improved performance in non-oil sectors, notably financial services, telecommunications, information technology, and a gradual rebound in oil production, which is expected to align with Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota.

It is anticipated that Nigeria’s economic growth would further strengthen to 3.8 per cent by 2027, assuming current reforms are sustained.

“Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, and slightly increase to 3.8 per cent in 2026–27.

“The gradual recovery of the Nigerian economy along the forecast horizon is driven primarily by the service sector—specifically, finance, information and communications technology services, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production that converges to its OPEC+ quota,” the World Bank stated.

On the external front, it expects Nigeria’s current account position to remain strong.

It said the current account surplus will rise slightly from 9.2 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 9.4 per cent in 2026. This outlook is underpinned by lower imports, increased remittances, and higher oil exports.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows the country recorded a balance of payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024—its first in three years—driven by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion.

The ICIR had, in a recent analysis, spotted that the 2025 budget would most likely face implementation challenges with the consistent drop in crude oil price, hitting its lowest level at $65 per barrel in 4 years in recent times and below the country’s $75 per barrel benchmark.

With the US-China trade war posing a significant risk to the global economy, experts have suggested that Nigeria increase its oil production and avoid poor fiscal management to cushion the impact of global economic shocks, particularly from recent United States (US) trade tensions.

During a press briefing on the Fund’s 2025 Global Policy Agenda in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, April 24, the IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, noted that the drop in oil prices has placed oil-producing countries like Nigeria in a difficult position.

“Oil producers like Nigeria are under budget pressure due to lower oil prices. On the other hand, oil importers may benefit. But broadly, slowing global growth will affect everyone, and we have already downgraded the continent’s growth prospects,” Georgieva said.