SOKOTO, Jigawa and Kano are some of the states with the highest risk of election manipulation in the forthcoming general elections, according to an analysis conducted using the Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI) by YIAGA Africa.

The Election Manipulation Risk Index EMRI is an evidence-based tool designed to reduce election manipulation and promote strategic election planning.

The YIAGA Africa, a non-profit organisation committed to promoting democratic governance, initiated the new technology.

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As preparation advances, attempt to disrupt and distort election outcomes using means that jeopardise the integrity of the process is on the rise, and 22 of the 36 Nigerian states are more prone to such attempts, according to the report.

The report noted that Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Adamawa, Kaduna, Niger, and Plateau states are at a higher risk of experiencing illegal interference in the electoral process of the February 25 poll.

Other states in the category are Kwara, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Lagos, Taraba, Enugu, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Imo, Rivers and Akwa Ibom.

The report also noted that 12 states have a medium risk of experiencing illegal interference in the poll.

These states are; Zamfara, Kebbi, Yobe, Borno, Ogun, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Kogi, Nasarawa, Benue, and Cross River.

Ondo, Gombe and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are the only states with little chance of manipulation in the presidential election.

Factors that impact election credibility

With February 25 just a few days away, the integrity of Nigeria’s general election is a topic on the national radar.

The YIAGA Africa report identified voter suppression and tampering of voter registers as factors that impact the credibility of the polls.

The report indicated that voting by underaged children and foreigners is one form of inclusion of unqualified persons that inevitably compromises electoral outcomes.

Also, buyout by politicians to neutralise the voting strength of target communities, theft of PVCs, and vandalisation of INEC offices and election materials has hampered the past elections and are factors to also look out for, according to the report.

Using the EMRI, YIAGA conducted its analysis based on six factors. These factors were selected due to their impact on elections.

According to the report, INEC capture, tampering with the voter register, resistance to election technology like BVAS and IReV, and a history of electoral fraud have a high impact on election credibility.

On the other hand, voter suppression and election litigation have a medium impact.

What can be done?

YIAGA Africa, in the report, said enhanced security at storage facilities where the BVAS is stored, timely production and distribution of PVCs, and a decentralised PVC collection process, would held to improve the credibility of elections.

It asked INEC to avoid entertaining frivolous litigations against the use of the BVAS and IReV.

The report emphasised the need for civil society and media to ensure adequate deployment of pre-election observers to monitor INEC officials at the local levels. It also stressed the need for improved security deployment at all INEC facilities across the country.

YIAGA Africa also noted that the prosecution of INEC officials involved in manipulating voter registers is another way to reduce the risk of election manipulation.

It asked the judiciary to “dismiss cases instituted to undermine the preparations for the general elections and take disciplinary actions against legal practitioners engaged
in the election manipulation using the judicial process and an improved understanding of judicial officers on provisions of the Electoral Act 2022”.

Evolution of voting technology

Nigeria has explored the use of technology to improve the reliability of its election results over the years.

The country first introduced technology to its polls in 2011 when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) initiated an automated fingerprint identification system to stop voters from registering more than once.

Since then, Nigeria has evolved voting technology peculiar to its open secret ballot system.

Nigeria has explored these tools, from biometric voter registration, smart card readers, and voters’ cards to contain electoral fraud. Although, the reliability of these devices initially generated some controversy among Nigerians.

Also, some non-profit agencies have launched technological tools to tackle the gaps that affect election credibility in Nigeria.

Earlier in the year, YIAGA launched EMRI to tackle election fraud and manipulation in Nigeria.

Similarly, ARise Networks, a Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Company, also launched the “Run-Am” mobile app to verify fake news and combat the spread of misinformation during the 2023 presidential poll.

The tool can ensure efficiency and accountability of information during the 2023 elections using its news and image verification feature to check misinformation that may cause violence during elections.

Last year, Connected Development, CODE, a civil society organisation dedicated to empowering marginalised communities in Africa, launched a Real-Time (Web-Based Map) Situation Technology, Uzabe.

The tool can gather real-time security intelligence while observing the electoral process.

It can provide early warning systems for communities and voters. This will mitigate violence and increase emergency response during elections.

These tools have been designed to ensure transparency and accountability in elections.