THE Federal Government on Wednesday warned that 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) would be at risk of flooding in 2026.

The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, an engineer, made the disclosure during the public presentation of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) at the Presidential Banquet Hall in Abuja.

The event was organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA) and themed, “Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy.”

The warning came as the rainy season begins, with the government listing states such as Lagos, Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa and Kebbi among those expected to be affected, alongside 28 others.

Utsev stressed the importance of early warnings, noting that timely information could help save lives, protect infrastructure, and reduce economic losses.

He explained that the Federal Government was working to improve flood forecasting and preparedness by upgrading the country’s hydrological monitoring systems.

He also said the ministry was strengthening its partnership with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to better combine weather and water data, which is essential for providing accurate forecasts that can support farmers, disaster managers, urban planners and other sectors.

Describing the AFO as more than just a scientific document, the minister said it served as a call for action.

He, however, cautioned that predictions alone would not be effective unless communities act on the information, adding that the ministry was collaborating with other agencies to reduce the impact of flooding.

Providing figures from the outlook, Utsev said 14,118 communities in 226 local government areas across the 33 states and the FCT fell within high flood risk zones.

“The states are: Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara, and the FCT,” he said.

In addition, 15,597 communities in 405 local government areas across 35 states – excluding Ekiti – are expected to experience moderate flooding.

“15,597 communities in 405 LGAs, 35 states except Ekiti State, will experience moderate flood risk,” the minister stated.

He added that 923 communities in 77 local government areas across 24 states might face low-level flooding.

“Low Flood Risk: incidences of minimal flood is expected in 923 communities in 77 LGAs in 24 States. The states are Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.”

The report also highlighted the likelihood of flash and urban flooding in major cities due to heavy rainfall, poor drainage systems and weak water management practices. Cities expected to be affected include Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin-Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri and Yola.

Coastal and riverine flooding is also anticipated in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo states due to rising sea levels and tidal surges, which could disrupt fishing, wildlife and river transportation.

Utsev emphasised the broader importance of water management, stating: “As we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognise that water security is national security. Effective water governance will play a critical role in ensuring food security, supporting economic diversification, and improving the overall well-being of our citizens.”

He urged state governments, local authorities, farmers and community leaders to take the warnings seriously and begin preparations immediately.

“I therefore call on state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to carefully study the findings and advisories contained in this document and take the necessary steps to prepare for the coming flood season.

“Furthermore, we are encouraging state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development, and infrastructure design. Floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems must be improved, and communities must be empowered to adapt to changing climate conditions.

“Preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks. When we plan ahead, we protect lives, safeguard infrastructure, and preserve economic gains. Let us commit to building a safer, more resilient and more water-secure nation.”

Earlier, the Director General of NiHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 AFO aligned with the Federal Government’s Renewed Hope Agenda, particularly in areas such as economic diversification, infrastructure development, climate resilience, food security and sustainable water management.

He described the AFO as a vital planning tool that provides early warnings, supports decision-making and helps coordinate emergency responses nationwide.

According to him, the agency has improved its forecasting process by adopting advanced systems.

“The AFO has evolved into an important national planning instrument that provides early scientific prediction of flood risks in the country, evidence-based guide for decision-makers and platform for emergency coordination among stakeholders.

“In producing this year’s forecast, the agency undertook a comprehensive and data-driven process to provide tailored information for high-risk flood zones and flash floods in urban cities and towns. Building on the success achieved through AFO publications, we have upgraded from reporting flood forecast to flood risk intelligence architecture and from the traditional modelling to Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system to improve forecast reliability, reduce false alarms and improve the lead time accuracy.

“Not these alone, the modelling for the 2026 forecast have been conducted in-house. This marks a strategic shift toward enhancing capacity building, manpower development and institutional resilience.”

He also disclosed that NiHSA’s Flood Dashboard had been upgraded into a full decision-support geo-intelligence system that allowed real-time monitoring and analysis of flood situations. The system is supported by a mobile application to make flood alerts more accessible, with trained personnel available to respond to inquiries.

In his remarks, the Director General of NiMet, Charles Anosike, a professor, acknowledged the persistent challenges flooding poses in Nigeria and across Africa, but noted that improved technology was helping to predict and manage such disasters.

He commended NiHSA for its efforts and reaffirmed NiMet’s commitment to working closely with the agency to strengthen flood prediction and response systems. He also called for a shift in development priorities to place greater emphasis on water resource management.

President Bola Tinubu, who was represented at the event by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, reiterated the administration’s commitment to improving emergency response and promoting sustainable development.

He said the government recognised the importance of rescue teams in managing disasters and was taking steps to strengthen relevant institutions for quicker and more effective responses.

The president also highlighted the role of communication in addressing emergencies, noting that better coordination and public awareness would improve outcomes.

According to him, ongoing efforts in planning and service delivery would help the country overcome its current challenges and ensure the safety and well-being of citizens.

The event was attended by key stakeholders, including officials from the ministries of Water Resources and Sanitation, Livestock Development, Environment and Women Affairs, as well as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, state governments, service chiefs, development partners and members of the media.