THE decision as to who becomes the next elected governor of Edo State will be made on Saturday, September 21, with 17 political parties jostling for the coveted seat.
The Edo election is one of the off-cycle polls to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) this year. In November, INEC is also expected to conduct the governor election in Ondo State.
Approximately, 2.63 million registered voters in the state are expected to cast their votes but 2.25 million of these voters have collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC), making them eligible to vote.
By this, the election in Edo would be determined by only 85.57 per cent of registered voters casting their ballot in 4,519 polling units across the 18 local government areas of the state.
The INEC data also showed that more males registered to vote in the election than females with a ratio of 1.37 million to 1.26 million voters. However, the election turnout is likely to be determined by voters between the age of 18 years to 49 years, as over 1,89 million voters fall within this category.
On occupation, the voters’ turnout is likely to be determined by students, business persons, traders, farmers and fishermen as they collectively make up 73 per cent of the total voters registered for the elections. This is a combined figure of 1.9 million registered voters.
The data by INEC also disclosed that 4,199 people living with disability also registered to partake in the elections.
Close up on political parties and candidates
A total of 17 political parties would compete for the voters’ selection in the Saturday polls. Of this figure, 16 governorship candidates are males while the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) candidate is a female.
Further checks also showed that six political parties have females as their deputy governorship candidates. These parties are, Action Democratic Party (ADP), Action Peoples Party (APP), Boot Party (BP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria People Party (NNPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
Top contenders
The top governorship candidates in the race are; Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Olumide Akpata of Labour party (LP).
The ICIR has monitored several reports as events developed toward the election including the court judgement on Akpata and Ighodalo.
Parties chances in the election
The ICIR went further to examine the chances of political parties to win the governorship seat based on the parties’ performance in the national assembly and state assembly elections held in the three states in February and March as well as LGA elections in September 2023.
Recall that Edo conducted its local government elections in September 2023, where PDP won all chairmanship seats in the 18 LGAs.
Data also shows that at the state assembly, out of 24 seats, PDP secured 15, APC secured eight and the LP had one seat.
At the national assembly level, APC has two seats in the red chamber while one seat is occupied by the LP. In the House of Representatives, six out of the nine seats were occupied by APC members, two members of LP occupied two seats while PDP had one seat.
| List | PDP | APC | LP | Total |
| LGA members | 18 | – | – | 18 |
| State assembly | 15 | 8 | 1 | 24 |
| Senate | – | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| House of Reps | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| Total | 34 | 16 | 4 | 54 |
Table showing elected representatives in Edo state. Source: Media reports/ INEC
Cumulatively, at all representative levels, the PDP has 34 representatives, the APC has 16 representatives, while LP has four representatives. Assuming all representatives drum support in their wards to mobilise voters, the PDP candidate stands a better chance at clinching the governorship seat.
The outcome of previous elections
The outgoing governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, was elected first in 2016 securing over 319,000 votes under APC to defeat his major opposition Osagie Ize-Iyamu. Obaseki was later re-elected for a second tenure securing over 307,000 votes under the flagship of the PDP.
In 2012, Adams Oshiomhole won the elections under the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) by over 477,000 votes.
Meanwhile, Oserheimen Osunbor won the state’s governorship election in 2006 but the Edo State Governorship Election Tribunal declared that his election was invalid and declared Oshiomhole winner in 2008.
Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at jameskennyogunyale@gmail or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames | LinkedIn: Kehinde Ogunyale