NIGERIA’s average daily crude oil production increased significantly to 1.539 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, exceeding the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota.

OPEC stated in its monthly crude oil report released on Wednesday, February 12.

This is the first time Nigeria’s crude oil production exceeded the cartel’s quota since it set a daily target of 1.5 million for the country at its ministerial meeting on November 30, 2023.

In December 2024, the quota was extended to 2026 as Nigeria produced below the quota for over a year.

In the January oil market report, OPEC said the crude oil production figure was based on direct communication with the Nigerian government.

OPEC obtains data on crude oil production from two sources, that is direct communication — which is from member countries — and secondary communication, such as energy intelligence platforms.

The secondary sources showed that Nigeria’s crude production declined by two per cent to 1.49 million bpd in January from 1.52 million bpd in December 2024.

But the direct communication source shows Nigeria’s crude oil production rose by 54,000 or 3.6 per cent in January from 1.48 million bpd in December 2024.

Nigeria retained its position as the largest oil producer in Africa, surpassing Algeria, which produced 907,000 bpd in the review month, the report showed.

OPEC highlighted in the report that Nigeria’s oil production is likely to increase with the Dangote Refinery nearing full capacity.

It said, “The oil sector remains central to the economy, and the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity should help stabilise the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices.”

The ICIR reported that the Dangote Refinery had hinted at its plan to ramp up production to full capacity in March 2025.

The plant, with a full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day production, is currently producing at 85 per cent t, according to the refinery.

However, Nigeria’s inability to meet in daily crude oil production benchmark has been of serious concern over the years.

In its proposed 2025 budget being interrogated at the National Assembly, the government has set a 2.06 million bpd production target.

In its 2024 budget, the federal government set the crude oil production benchmark, including condensate, at 1.7 million bpd, but the country only reached an average daily production of 1.34 million bpd, OPEC data shows.

Failure to meet production targets impacts crude oil Nigeria’s revenue, which makes up over 70 per cent of the country’s yearly earnings, experts have consistently argued.

In June 2024, The ICIR analysed that the government was losing over N16 billion in revenue daily from crude oil production, amounting to N1.62 trillion between January and May 202,4 as oil production volume dropped rapidly.