THE re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) came with concerns over the seeming disintegration of the regional bloc which diplomatic analysts posited has affected his international and regional political image.

Tinubu was re-elected as its chairman during the  Authority of Heads of States and Government session at the Presidential Villa Abuja.

He was first elected to the position on July 9, 2023.

In his re-election address, Tinubu said: “I have agreed to continue to deliver on this service with the great men and women on this democratic journey to serve our interest and build democratic values on the structure we inherited.”

President Tinubu’s re-election is coming in the wake of biting challenges in the West African sub-region, Africa, and the world.

At the time of his first election, the sub-region was confronted with the overthrow of democratic civilian governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Parallel meetings of ECOWAS  in Abuja on Tinubu’s re-election day and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) – comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – in Niger’s capital, Niamey, exposed growing discontent within the unstable region, pitting neighbours against each other.

The juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in January, amid heightening tensions over the bloc’s position on military takeovers.

Diplomatic analysts insist that in foreign policy, countries’ national interest comes before anything else. Nigeria’s interests and others’ should be guaranteed by member nations, which was why ECOWAS was established.

Some of them argued that not having a grip on the region lowers his foreign diplomacy rating at the international level.

“The Sahel is like the melting point for the current crisis and it doesn’t speak well of the president’s political image and foreign policy internationally, given the size and strength of Nigeria as a political leader in the continent,” a professor of political science and  International Relations and director of strategic partnership at Al-Muhibbah University, Abuja, Muhktar Imam told The ICIR.

“Some of these countries particularly Niger, depend largely on Nigeria. It also depends considerably on the International community for it is survival. That’s why the budget is always on deficits and they require international support for budgetary responsibility,” he added.

According to the professor, what is playing out, with the disintegration of the regional bloc, which started under his watch is not good for Tinubu’s image locally and internationally.

He further said that regardless of international partnership with France and the United States, if he fails to hold a grip on ECOWAS politics, it could make his diplomatic relations shaky at the continental and international level.

He suggested the need for the ECOWAS bloc to understand that diplomacy is the only way out of the crisis for the countries that have left the bloc.

Expressing further concerns, he noted that the junta regime of the seceded countries – Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali had grievances that have not been met by ECOWAS.

He argued further that the unmet needs could spur their inability to rejoin the regional bloc.

“Some of the grievances haven’t been addressed and they’re going to move ahead in establishing that regional team bloc. It is not surprising that the re-election day for President Tinubu was the day the juntas hoisted their session flag,” he said.

As a consequence of that, ECOWAS unanimously voted to impose a wide range of sanctions on the military rulers of the countries involved as part of efforts to force them to restore democratic rule.

Harvest of coups

On July 26, shortly after President Tinubu was elected as chairman of the regional group, which was just after he was inaugurated as president of Nigeria on May 29, 2023, there was another military coup in Niger in which President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown.

As chairman of the body, President Tinubu was mandated to lead the ECOWAS in compelling the Niger military rulers, along with the other military regimes in the region, to immediately restore democracy or face further sanctions, including military action.

Within the one year of his stewardship of ECOWAS, the military regimes have not only remained recalcitrant, they have continued their defiance by pulling out of the regional body and forming their alternative group, which they called the Association of Sahel States.

In addition to these immediate challenges in the sub-region, Tinubu, as ECOWAS chairman, was confronted with an increasingly fractured world in which the powerful countries are coming head-to-head in their competition for spheres of influence. These conflicts imply that the post-second world war global order is becoming unhinged as emerging powers stake their claims in the global system.

In all these, Africa has continued to not only miss out but to become a pawn in the geo-strategic game going on in the world. In many instances, it has been demonstrated by these powers that Africa is only relevant to them as a treasure trove of the mineral resources it possesses, and as a market to dump their goods.

It is noticeable that as countries in other regions of the world are consolidating their efforts to face the changing global order, African states are mired deep in one conflict and contradiction after the other. Some African countries are at war internally with political and ethnic factions going at each other and externally against their neighbors.

There is also the perennial factor of economic challenges leading to increasing poverty, environmental degradation, and insecurity along with its related issues of displacement of people and their livelihoods.

For a political economist, Katch Ononuju, President Tinubu needs the association and cooperation from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

“These countries have built a military alliance and have been able to arrest the insecurity in their shores. I think these are the things he needs to do, being newly re-elected since he’s now the leader of the subregion.

According to Ononuju, the creation of the ministry of livestock is not the way to address the insecurity in the Sahel.

“The crisis in the Sahel is not the first time for Nigeria. We faced a similar crisis in 1974. Let President Tinubu learn from that when Maronite Christians who left Lebanon were quartered in Apapa, Kano when they came as destitutes,” he said.

Punctured cultural,economic ties with Niger 

Also, a security and Economic Analyst, Majeed Dahiru, who spoke to The ICIR on the issue, said Nigeria is almost the greatest loser in the countries’ exit because of the strong economic and cultural ties it has with the Niger Republic.

“For many years, Niger has proven to be a strong ally to Niger. It also has strong cultural and economic ties with Nigeria. Also, a war against insurgency will only be won with strong ally forces working together.

“In terms of hydro-power generation, Niger Republic contributes to the West African power pool. All these should have been considered diplomatically before such sanctions were imposed on these countries.”He suggested that Nigeria should initiate a diplomatic meeting with Niger Republic to address some of these key problems and to be headed by the Nigerian minister of Foreign Affairs.

Diplomatic analysts insist that in foreign policy, countries’ national interest comes before anything else. Nigeria’s interests and others’ interests should be guaranteed by member nations, which was why ECOWAS was established.

The ICIR has earlier reported that Nigeria will likely face more security and economic challenges following the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger as the country’s fight against insurgency and dwindling economy bite harder.

The three countries were sanctioned by the ECOWAS for enforcing a military regime and severing diplomatic ties with French colonial masters.