PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu’s claim of meeting revenue targets in August 2025, citing improved remittances from non-oil revenues, has several implications for the economy, with economic watchers projecting a lower lending rate for businesses by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
President Tinubu, at a meeting with stakeholders comprising largely of ruling party loyalists on September 3, said the national revenue target in August had been met, a statement analysts say offers hope for a possible reduction in the high lending rate for businesses and manufacturers.
“Today, I can stand before you to brag, Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year, and we met it in August,” Tinubu said
He attributed the progress to improved non-oil revenue performance, asserting that Nigeria has no reason to fear international economic developments.
“If non-oil revenue is going well, then we have no fear,” Tinubu stated.
The President stressed that the economy is now stabilised, with exchange rates improving from N1,900 to N1,450 per dollar.
He also announced plans to establish agricultural mechanisation centres nationwide to boost food production and job creation.
“Nobody is trading pieces of paper for the exchange rate anymore. You don’t have to know a CBN governor to get forex. All you have to do is export, import, and create jobs for the people,” he said.
The ICIR reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) current lending rate is 27.5 per cent.
This rate determines the interest at which commercial banks borrow money from the CBN.
At the current rate of 27.5 per cent, with additional mark-up costs, most manufacturers are crowded out of borrowing, with most commercial banks pegging their lending rate at an average of 35 per cent.
Another consequence of the high lending rate is that manufacturers will pass the buck of the high cost of funds to their business, which increases inflation pressure.
Accordingly, higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, potentially slowing down economic activity and limiting access to credit for businesses.
Furthermore, higher interest rates increase lending rates and make borrowing more costly, discouraging entrepreneurial activities and expansion plans.
“We expect the lending rate to go lower than what it is currently so that commercial banks can lend at lower rates to businesses and the overall economy,” a professor of economics a the Lagos Business School, Bongo Adi, said in reaction to President Tinubu’s claim of meeting revenue targets of the economy in August.
“We expect the rate to drop so that we could see more rebound in the economy with more investment going into the real sector,” he said.
An Economist, Kingsley Obiakor told The ICIR that the government should retool its policies to encourage productivity in the economy.
“Policies should focus on boosting agricultural productivity, reducing post-harvest losses, and improving transportation and storage infrastructure to ensure food affordability.”
He urged the federal government to stabilise the exchange rate, encourage local production and reduce reliance on imports to help strengthen the currency and control price surges, maintain fiscal discipline, and prioritise infrastructure and social investments, which help manage inflationary pressures.
He further called on the Central Bank of Nigeria to “carefully adjust monetary policies, ensuring interest rate decisions strike a balance between controlling inflation and sustaining economic growth.”
In its 2025 Appropriation Act, The ICIR reported that the Federal Government projected a total revenue target of N18.32 trillion to fund a record N28.78 trillion budget.
This included N7.94 trillion in oil revenue and N10.39 trillion from non-oil sources, reflecting the administration’s renewed push to diversify Nigeria’s income base away from crude oil dependence.
The budget assumed an average oil production of 1.78 million barrels per day at a benchmark price of $77.96 per barrel, with a projected naira-to-dollar exchange rate of N750.
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.