NIGERIA’s quest to achieve a target gross domestic product (GDP) of $1 trillion by 2030 could be a pipe dream given the current annual GDP growth rate of three per cent.
Economic expert and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Ltd, Bismarck Rewane, made this submission on Tuesday, July 29, in response to the recent GDP rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
He argued that the target could only be achieved with 15 per cent annual growth, adding that 3.13 per cent per cent growth as recorded in the first quarter (Q1) 2024, could not achieve the set target.
The ICIR reports that the President Bola Tinubu administration has set a target of $1 trillion economy by 2030, with most economic analysts querying the government on the methodology to achieve such milestone.
Rewane opined that Nigeria could grow mostly at seven per cent, but would be unable to meet the $ 1 trillion target.
“We need to accept that Nigeria is the fourth largest economy in Africa and the forty largest economy in the world, and that the goal of having a N1trillion economy is a mirage rather than a reality. We need to grow at 15 per cent to achieve a N1trillion economy, and that’s not going to happen.
While citing comparison, he said, “Nigeria and Singapore used to have the same GDP per head in 1960. Unfortunately, Singapore’s income per head today is $90,000 per head, while Nigeria’s is $1000.To state the least, Singapore is 90 times higher than Nigeria despite starting at the same time.”
He stated that a further comparison with Nigeria and Ghana shows a dismal performance of the Nigerian economy.
“GDP per head in Ghana is $5000 per head while Nigeria is slightly above $1000,” he added.
Rewane stressed the urgent need for Nigeria to resolve its lingering power supply issues, warning that continued outages posed a significant threat to national economic growth.
He emphasised the impact of electricity instability on Nigeria’s GDP, particularly in key economic hubs like Lagos and Ogun states.
“There is the opportunity cost, and there is a cost. The cost is that Lagos and Ogun states may constitute about 30 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP. So, if you’re going to have one month of power outage, the impact is effectively one-twelfth of 30 per cent —which is significant,” he said.
Rewane described Nigeria’s power challenges as deeply rooted and multi-dimensional, citing issues such as cultural barriers, tariff imbalances, underinvestment, and debt forbearance within the sector. “You cannot grow the economy with what we’ve seen today without a broad power solution.
“If there is a power outage in Nigeria, it must be resolved – no question. You can’t put a Band-Aid on it. It has to be done, and it has to be done now,” he stated.
On economic performance, Rewane noted that Nigeria’s GDP was at approximately $2.45 billion, with a 3.13 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of the year.
He also observed shifts within the economy, stressing that manufacturing’s contribution had declined, while agriculture had grown in visibility, and the service sector remained the primary driver of economic activity.
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.