THE World Bank projects that the economic activities in Western and Central Africa may increase by 3.7 per cent in 2024, but this will be largely determined by Nigeria’s economic performance in the same year.
The Bank says this will increase by 0.5 per cent from the 3.2 per cent recorded in 2023.
It further notes that the subregion’s performance will be held back if Nigeria’s economic growth is ‘lower-than-average’.
In its report on the economic outlook of Western and Central Africa, the Washington-based lender says the Western and Central subregion (AFW) is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 5 per cent in 2025–2026.
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It projects Nigeria’s economic growth at 3.3 per cent in 2024 and 3.6 per cent in 2025 to 2026 as macroeconomic and fiscal reforms gradually start to yield results.
The Bank further notes that, “A more stable macroeconomic environment, as the reforms’ initial shock dissipates, will lead to sustained but still slow growth of the non-oil economy. The oil sector is expected to stabilise with a recovery in production and slightly lower prices.
“Structural reforms will be needed to foster higher growth. Average inflation will remain elevated at 24.8 per cent in 2024, although it is expected to ease gradually to 15.1 per cent by 2026 on the back of monetary policy tightening and exchange rate stabilisation.”
Also, in Côte d’Ivoire, also located in West Africa, economic activity is set to grow at 6.6 per cent in 2024 and to stay firm at 6.5 per cent in 2025–26.
The ICIR reported how Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined to 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023. This decline brought the annual GDP to 2.74 per cent in 2023 compared to 3.10 per cent reported in 2022.
Challenges in the subregion
The World Bank notes that countries in the subregion are suffering from the impacts of multiple overlapping crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increased violent attacks, and military coups that suspended some economic activities in affected countries.
The ICIR reported how Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger juntas threatened to leave the Economic Community of West African States after they were sanctioned by the regional body for overthrowing democratic governments.
“Persistent conflict and organised violence may disrupt production and access to food staples in several countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, among others). Food security problems are amplified by climatic shocks.
“Disruptions of rainfall patterns, along with the black pod disease, are threatening cocoa production and the livelihoods of farmers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Moreover, factors like soil degradation, pests, and market fluctuations exacerbate the difficulties faced by agricultural communities,” the World Bank says.
However, the World Bank states that in fiscal 2023, it approved $12.0 billion in lending to Western and Central Africa for 73 operations, including $564 million in IBRD commitments and $11.4 billion in IDA commitments.
Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at jameskennyogunyale@gmail or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames | LinkedIn: Kehinde Ogunyale