NIGERIA’s average daily crude oil output in June slightly exceeded the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
The latest monthly crude oil report released by OPEC on Tuesday, June 15, showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output rose to 1.505 million bpd in June from 1.453 million bpd in May.
This is the second time it has met its 1.5 million bpd quota this year. In January, Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.54 million bpd, but dropped in the following months.
OPEC had, in November 2023, approved a daily production quota of 1.5 million bpd for Nigeria, but meeting that target has been eluding Nigeria, month on month.
According to the data, the crude oil production figure was based on direct communication received from Nigeria as a member of the OPEC body.
The ICIR can report that despite exceeding the OPEC quota in June, the country is far from meeting its crude oil production benchmark of over two million bpd set in the 2025 budget, a situation many analysts fear will make implementation unachievable.
Amid the crude oil production shortfall, Nigeria is set to push for a 25 per cent increase in its oil production quota by 2027.
The push for the new quota by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is hinged on growth in refinery capacity and improved production.
Explaining the economic situation in the country, OPEC noted that private sector activity in Nigeria continued to expand in June, though at a slower pace, as indicated by a retraction in the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from 52.7 in May to 51.6.
“The slowdown was primarily due to weaker growth in the manufacturing sector, while other sectors maintained some momentum. Persistent challenges such as material shortages, delayed payments, and power supply issues led to a rise in backlogs for the third consecutive month, and employment levels remained largely unchanged.
“While consumer price inflation is trending downward, rising food costs and global volatility – including tariff concerns – are key risks,” the cartel stated.
As a result of the foregoing, OPEC projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to keep the policy rate steady at 27.5 per cent at its upcoming July meeting scheduled for next week.
It further expressed worries that Nigeria’s external and fiscal accounts showed mixed trends.
“The current account surplus in 1Q25 [first quarter 2025] narrowed to $3.7 billion, falling short of market expectations despite a strong increase in the trade surplus. Weakness in the services account and lower transfer inflows contributed to this trend.
“The full-year current account surplus is now projected at 7.1% of GDP. On the fiscal side, Nigeria saw an improved deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2024, helped by strong oil and tax revenues. However, continued government spending and optimistic assumptions underpinning the 2025 budget are likely to widen the deficit,” OPEC stated.
It added that the public debt climbed in the first quarter but is expected to remain at around 50 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
Crude oil prices have moved steeply in response to Trump’s threat against Russia.
Following the persistent geopolitical risks and market fundamentals, on Tuesday, July 15, oil prices fell with Brent crude trading at $68.94 per barrel.
Brent crude had climbed to $70.53 on Monday before settling at $69.21 at the close.
At the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was priced at $66.39 per barrel.