THE Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) developed early warning systems and agro-meteorological advisories, but Sokoto rice farmers say they never received forecast warnings, losing billions in investments to extreme climate shocks. This highlights the disconnect between climate services and at-risk communities, as the communication gap persists.
It was December 2025. Ibrahim Jingilma, 70, rested his old, rusted hoe on his shoulder as he walked home from his rice field after an early morning of weeding. He had been clearing dried rice straw, preparing the land for another planting season. Grief lingered, following him back from the farm. Months earlier, floods had swept through their fields in Shinaka, Goronyo Local Government Area of Sokoto State in northwest Nigeria. During the chaos, his son was killed after drinking from a contaminated stream while participating in a dredging effort.
Jingilma’s loss is not unique. His story reflects the fate of at least 249 other farmers in Shinaka whose investments were washed away by flooding. The year was marked by delayed rains and prolonged dry spells that weakened crops, making them vulnerable to the floods.
Many large- and small-scale rice producers have been plunged into poverty. Their planting calendars have repeatedly failed, creating a pattern of loss that has eroded their resources over time, from gradual depletion to complete ruin.
Rice farmers describe an ideal seasonal calendar: in the 1990s, rice planted in March matured within four months and was harvested by July — before heavy rains intensified. “If you planted rice in March, you’d harvest by July. You’d avoid the floods,” he explained. “But planting in June or July means harvesting in September or October — when the floods come.”
These traditional planting cycles, long relied upon by farmers, are becoming unreliable due to delayed rainfall and prolonged dry spells, causing significant yield losses.
Jingilma and other farmers in his community hadn’t heard of NiMet or received climate advisories, despite being members of rice farmers’ associations.
They recognise the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), which visited after the floods to document victims and promise support. However, the promised assistance has been slow to materialize, leaving many waiting for relief.
In 2025, Jingilma invested ₦5 million (~$3,600) in six hectares of rice fields — three owned by him, three by his children. He financed much of this with loans. In September 2025, floods destroyed the crops, repeating the previous year’s disaster. The loss was life-threatening, transforming Jingilma from farm owner and employer to labourer on others’ farms, struggling to survive and repay debts.
Labour in vain
Data shows that Nigeria’s rice output declined to 5.23 million metric tons in the 2024/2025 season — the lowest level recorded in four years. Even in previous years, domestic production has consistently fallen short of national consumption demands, despite the vast scale of farming activities across the country.
A recent PeacePro report estimates farmers lost ₦5 trillion ($4 billion) over two farming seasons due to missed or inaccurate meteorological forecasts from NiMet. In 2025, NiMet received ₦9.82 billion for operations, including climate info dissemination. However, in 2026, it struggled to defend its budget before the National Assembly, with committee members recommending capital budget cuts.
Despite billions allocated for climate services, and farmers unaware of the agency’s existence, the disconnect raises deeper questions about accountability within Nigeria’s early warning architecture.
Forecasts exist, but don’t reach farmers
Ibrahim Abubakar, Chair of the Rice Innovation Centre established by AfricaRice and Chairman of the Gada/Goronyo Farmers Management and Delivery Centre, describes the challenges facing farmers in Sokoto as multi-layered. While acknowledging broader systemic problems, he noted that NiMet has never directly engaged with farmers in his network.
Abubakar highlighted structural challenges with the Goronyo Dam, managed by the Rima Basin Development Authority. The dam (947 million cubic metres capacity) supplies irrigation channels across Sokoto, Kebbi, and Zamfara states. While it serves as a critical irrigation source (with farmers paying fees), it has a history of emergency discharges that flood farmlands. In 2025, over 600 hectares of rice fields were flooded in Goronyo due to water releases. Officials discharge water when inflow exceeds safe capacity to prevent structural damage.
“Whenever management learns that the water reaches a certain level, they don’t have any other option than to release it,” Abubakar said.
Compounding structural issues are concerns about NiMet’s inconsistent weather forecasting. Abubakar suggests NiMet should engage directly with farmers’ leaders to prevent losses. “NiMet should establish synergy with farmers’ leaders for direct contact,” he said. Farmers cooperate when properly engaged, but insecurity has weakened local coordination. Farmer associations now struggle to convene, with some members not meeting for months
Shared fate in Gada
In Gada communities neighbouring Goronyo, farmers face similar hardship. In villages such as Ballagu and Tsitse, residents have been devastated by a combination of climate extremes and insecurity.
In 2025, Shuaibu Muhammad, 52, was not only a victim of flooding; he was also a survivor of bandit captivity. In 2024 alone, he had fallen into the hands of armed groups twice. Muhammad was weeding his farm along the Tsitse community, where he had planted rice, garlic, onions, and pepper, when armed men attacked the area. He did not receive early warning of the invasion. He was abducted directly from his farm.
Muhammad spent two months in captivity before his release was secured after his family paid a ₦5 million ransom. The money was raised through the sale of family inheritance and community contributions. During his captivity, everything he had planted was lost. By the time he returned, the crops had withered due to lack of irrigation.
Within a week of his release, his elder sister was also abducted, forcing him to raise yet another ransom. Despite the trauma and financial devastation, Muhammad cannot abandon farming. It remains the primary source of livelihood for most families in Sokoto.
In 2025, disaster struck again. Floodwaters swept through his fields, destroying crops cultivated at an estimated cost of ₦500,000. He echoed the concerns raised by other farmers, stating that they had not received any advisories from NiMet. Although a lawmaker who visited the community mentioned the likelihood of delayed rains that year, the forecast did not accurately capture the severity or duration of the delay.
While Muhammad many farmers from his community struggle to rebuild and prepare for another planting season, they remain trapped in uncertainty — unsure how climate change will unfold and whether their next harvest will yield anything at all.
We do not take information directly to farmers-NiMet
Responding to concerns about the climate information gap, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) acknowledged that it does not communicate directly with farmers. James Adamu, Assistant General Manager of Agricultural Meteorology and Technical Assistant to the CEO of NiMet, said the agency operates through established government channels.
“NiMet works with the extension agents in the state. Every year we give our information to the state ministry of agriculture and the state Agricultural development project in Sokoto. They are saddled with the responsibility of taking this information to the farmers.”
According to him, dissemination through extension services remains “the best way” to reach rural communities, as Nigeria is too vast for the agency to cover every farming settlement. “NiMet is not designed to go to every nook and cranny; we rely on the extension system.”
In Sokoto specifically, NiMet says it has gone beyond routine advisory releases. James pointed to a series of radio programmes conducted in the state to raise awareness about climate prediction and early warning systems. He also highlighted a partnership project with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which established automatic weather stations and climate peace hubs in selected local government areas, including Ilela and Wamakko.
“We have a climate peace hub where we share information,” he explained, adding, “Last year we were there like three times. This year we’ll be there again to share information on early warning.” A third location initially selected in Kebbe LGA had to be reconsidered due to insecurity,” he added.
On the question of monitoring whether farmers actually receive and use the advisories, James maintained that feedback is expected from extension services. “You don’t expect NiMet to start going to every community. It is the role of extension. That is what they are paid to do.”
Acknowledging the limitations of the current structure, NiMet says it is designing a more direct communication system using mobile technology. The agency is in consultation with partners to launch an SMS-based dissemination platform that would deliver climate advisories straight to farmers’ phones.
“We are trying to design a project whereby farmers will be getting SMS in their location,” James said, adding, “For us to do that, we need the database of farmers in the states. NiMet will not go around looking for farmers. The state has to provide the database.”
While critics argue that the absence of direct outreach has contributed to farmers’ vulnerability, NiMet insists it has fulfilled its mandate within the framework of Nigeria’s early warning system. “We make sure we release forecasts on time and make them public. The media also has a role. Extension has a role. It is not just NiMet, James said.”
The agency’s position underscores a broader institutional tension. While climate information is being generated and formally released, the pathway between forecast and farm remains uneven — leaving many farmers exposed to the very risks the advisories are meant to reduce.
All efforts to reach the “extension” Sokoto Ministry of Agriculture proved abortive, a WhatsApp text sent to the commissioner was not responded to as of the time of this publication.
Expert calls for urgent climate-smart reforms
Deputy Director at the Centre for Biotechnology and Plant Tissue Culture, S.B. Haliru, describes the situation as a serious structural gap.
“The issue of information gap is very, very critical. It has to be addressed,” he said.
According to him, while climate change itself may be beyond human control, the scale of farmers’ losses is not inevitable. Sokoto, located in Nigeria’s semi-arid belt, now experiences increasingly unpredictable rainfall, delayed onset of rains, and flash flooding. Without timely and localized climate advisories, farmers rely on traditional planting calendars, only to watch their crops fail.
The consequences have been devastating. Farmers recounted losing hundreds of millions in a single season due to flooding. Haliru notes that such cases reflect how climate extremes, combined with limited access to actionable information, are steadily eroding farmers’ investments.
“Whatever the farmer is doing, the last target — all the resources spent — is for him to get yield, and most importantly, high yield,” he explained. If there is total loss, then everything is gone.”
Drawing from international examples, Haliru points to climate-smart agricultural practices as part of the solution. In parts of Asia where flash floods are frequent, plant breeders have developed submergence-tolerant rice varieties capable of surviving days underwater.
“They develop submergence-tolerant rice varieties for farmers,” he said, adding, “After the flood, these varieties will sprout again and still give farmers yield.”
He argues that Nigeria’s research institutions have the mandate to improve crop varieties but must intensify efforts to make climate-resilient seeds accessible to farmers.
In regions like Sokoto where rainfall is unpredictable, Haliru recommends early maturing crop varieties to reduce risk. “The rainfall is very much unpredictable, so the only option is to cultivate early-maturing varieties. At least you can get something out of it,” he said. While acknowledging that some climate events are unavoidable, he emphasized mitigation: “Some of these issues are natural — something we do not have control over. The only way is to try as much as possible to mitigate the problem.”
Beyond climate shocks, farmers are also battling mounting economic pressures. The removal of petroleum subsidies has increased the cost of fertilizer and transportation, pushing up production costs. At the same time, the influx of imported rice from neighbouring countries has driven down the price of locally produced rice.
“The farmers buy inputs at a very high price, and when they harvest, what they get in return is less simply because of importation,” Dr. Haliru said. He warned that if the imbalance persists, farmers may withdraw from production altogether. If they produce and they are at a loss, some may decide to stop production. And we are going to be in trouble in the next couple of years.”
To bridge the information gap, Haliru advocates stronger collaboration between NiMet and state-level agricultural development projects. Climate advisories, he says, must be translated into local languages and delivered directly to farming communities. “There is no way NiMet can do this alone in isolation. They have to collaborate,” he stressed.
However, insecurity remains another obstacle to effective outreach. Some climate awareness programs have reportedly been disrupted due to security concerns in parts of the state.
Haliru insists that resolving insecurity requires political will at all levels of government. “There must be political will to end the insecurity issue. Otherwise, we will continue to face this problem,” he said.
Sabon Birni caught between insecurity and climate shocks
In Sabon Birni LGA of Sokoto State, the crisis presents a double burden. While much of Sokoto East continues to grapple with insecurity — with some communities reportedly paying levies to bandits before accessing their farmlands or risk being abducted — the region remains one of the hardest hit in recent years.
Farmers here must contend not only with the growing threats of climate change but also with the constant fear of kidnapping while working on their fields. In 2022 alone, no fewer than 42 communities were reported to have paid ₦70 million to the Bello Turji gang as protection money after many villages were attacked and sacked.
“There was a time we were on our way to the farm. When we reached the bridge, we were told that bandits were coming,” he recalled. “I insisted I had to go to the farm. As I crossed the bridge, I just heard gunshots and turned back. I had never run like that day — just to escape with my life.”
The attack forced Tafida to stay away from his farm for a period while he assessed the security situation before returning. He explained that a group of farmers later had to travel back to their fields accompanied by local vigilantes for protection. By the time they were able to resume access, an unexpected flood had already washed away the rice farm.
Tafida said he invested ₦300,000 in cultivating the rice, all of which was lost to the flooding. Although the temporary pause in visiting the farm may have contributed to the extent of the damage, he noted that the rainfall occurred earlier than expected based on the forecast he had heard on the radio.
In previous seasons, he harvested up to 30 bags of rice alongside guinea corn. This year, he harvested nothing.
“Like many other farmers, he said he had never received a forecast directly from NiMet. The only weather information he accessed came through a radio programme, and the last time he relied on it, the prediction proved inaccurate.”
For farmers like Tafida, survival now depends on navigating two unpredictable forces: the rising waters that wash away their crops and the armed groups that threaten their lives. In Sabon Birni, climate risk and insecurity do not operate separately — they collide, compounding losses and narrowing the choices available to those who depend on the land.