THE ICIR’s data journalist, Kehinde Ogunyale, evaluated the budgets approved for seven security institutions in Nigeria between 2019 and 2023 and juxtaposed them with data on insecurity in the country. The findings showed that while the expenditures for these formations have consistently grown, killings and incidents connected to insecurity have also been on the rise.
On December 25, 2023, more than 100 people were killed as a result of a bandit attack on 15 communities in Bakkos and Barkin-Ladi Local Government Area (LGA) of Plateau state. More than 200 houses were razed to the ground at dawn of that Christmas Day.
The attacks lasted for two days despite distress calls placed to the military for intervention during the dreadful incident. Two months after the massacre, no justifiable explanation have been issued by the government or the military authorities.
Just like Plateau state, several other states in Nigeria, specifically in the northern region, have reported horrifying attacks that led to the deaths of people in local communities with little or no intervention by security operatives.
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These brutal killings have raised questions on how the government and security agencies tackle lingering insecurity crises in the country.
Over the last five years, data gathered by The ICIR from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) revealed that more than 44,000 people have been killed in various insecurity crises that rocked Nigeria.
The figure is almost the total projected population of Ifedayo LGA in Osun state, one of Nigeria’s 774 LGAs.
Most of these killings were carried out by non-state actors like bandits, terrorists, and secessionist groups. There were also inter-communal clashes with attendant casualties.
Many of these incidents could be prevented or contained in civilised climes where budgets for insecurity are judiciously expended and requisite infrastructures are available to the security forces to contain such onslaughts.
Available data show that there has been a consistent increase in the number of attacks and killings reported within the years under study in Nigeria.
This data contradicts the promises by former President Muhammadu Buhari and President Bola Tinubu, inaugurated in May 2023, to end insecurity in the country.
Also, the data conflicts with the expectations of Nigerians from the security operatives, whose responsibility it is to protect the country from all forms of external aggression and internal unrest and crimes.
It is for these roles that the security formations receive yearly budgets.
What data say
According to ACLED data, 44,779 people were killed in 20,398 incidents, collated from media reports, between 2015 and 2023.
This is 16 per cent higher than the 38,515 deaths recorded between 2014 and 2018.
By calculation, there are 1,826 days between January 2015 and December 2023. If the total number of deaths is divided by each day, this would mean an average of 25 persons were killed daily in the last five years.
| Index | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Deaths | 5,952 | 8,459 | 10,880 | 10,754 | 8,734 |
| Incidences | 2,440 | 3,932 | 4,547 | 4,836 | 4,643 |
(Insecurity data in Nigeria/ Source: ACLED)
Within the first three years under review, the death rates rose by 83 per cent from 5,952 people killed in 2019 to 10,880 killed in 2021. There was however a slight decrease to 10,754 deaths in 2022 and 8,734 deaths at the end of 2023.
The ICIR reported that despite a change of administration in 2023, insecurity has persisted with over 5,000 people killed in the first seven months of Tinubu’s administration which is higher compared to when Buhari came into power in 2015.
Budgetary provision for security units
In a separate development, The ICIR examined the expenditure of seven security agencies and findings showed that the budget allocation to these units and ministries increased as insecurity persisted.
The examined parastatals are the Nigerian Army, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), the Nigeria Airforce, the Nigeria Navy, the Ministry of Police Affairs, the Defence Headquarters and the Ministry of Defence Headquarters.
Between 2019 and 2023, N7.71 trillion was released to these seven units.
| MDA | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| NIGERIAN ARMY | N228.42 billion | N463.41 billion | N510.64 billion | N580.59 billion | N665.12 billion |
| NSCDC | N89.17 billion | N91.48 billion | N91.36 billion | N110.01 billion | N117.72 billion |
| MINISTRY OF DEFENCE (MOD HQTRS) | N27.37 billion | N22.16 billion | N21.52 billion | N21.01 billion | N62.69 billion |
| NIGERIAN NAVY | N101.39 billion | N130.81 billion | N136.06 billion | N173.03 billion | N189.79 billion |
| NIGERIAN AIRFORCE | N114.84 billion | N136.42 billion | N140.13 billion | N184.78 billion | N200.42 billion |
| DEFENCE HEADQUARTERS | N5.21 billion | N44.42 billion | N35.36 billion | N80.94 billion | N86.11 billion |
| POLICE FORMATION & COMMAND HQTRS | 366,133,777,795 | – | – | – | – |
| MINISTRY OF POLICE AFFAIRS | – | N409.39 billion | N455.13 billion | N783.86 billion | N838.06 billion |
| Total | N932.53 billion | N1.30 trillion | N1.39 trillion | N1.93 trillion | N2.16 trillion |
(Note: The police command became a ministry in 2020)
Further analysis showed that over the past five years, the allocation of the Army increased by 191.19 per cent, NSCDS rose by 32 per cent and the Airforce budget jumped by 74.53 per cent. Also, the budget for the Navy increased by 87.19 per cent, the Defence headquarters budget rose by 1550.5 per cent and the Ministry of Defence budget jumped by 129.1 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Police command had a budget of N366.13 billion in 2019 after which it became a ministry in 2020. Between 2020 and 2023, the ministry’s budget increased by 104.7 per cent.
In 2024, Tinubu increased the allocation to 11 security agencies and ministries by seven per cent. Despite these increases, insecurity has grown to become Nigeria’s greatest challenge.
The ICIR documented several insecurity reports in the North, South-East and other states within the country.
Expert reacts
The Lead Director for the Centre for Social Justice, Eze Onyekpere, told The ICIR that Nigeria did not operate a result-based budgeting system where allocations were tied to critical deliverables.
According to Onyekpere, the security sector ought to have a benchmark where public resources are linked with high-level results.
He said, “There is a continuum called the planned policy-budget-continuum. You make plans, policies and laws and the next step is to put resources behind them, which is through the budget. The security agencies need more effective supervision and the government and civic society need to demand value for money.”
Recently, the Minister of Information and National Orientation Mohammed Idris, disclosed that the federal and state governments have agreed on creating state polices as part of efforts to reduce insecurity in the country.
Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at jameskennyogunyale@gmail or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames | LinkedIn: Kehinde Ogunyale