By Dare AKOGUN

BEYOND the terrorists’ attack on the Christ Apostolic Church (CAC) Eruku in Kwara State on November 18, The ICIR uncovers the factors that are fast turning the once peaceful State into a corridor of abductions. 

For years, Kwara enjoyed a reputation as a “buffer state” a relatively calm axis between the violence of Niger, Kogi, and other North-Central hotspots. But that image has collapsed.

Figures compiled by The ICIR show that over 207 persons were killed and at least 177 abducted in Kwara between January and early November 2025 alone.

The worst-hit areas include Ifelodun, Patigi, Edu, Ekiti, Isin, Kaiama and Irepodun LGAs, rural belts bordering Niger and Kogi, where state presence is minimal and forest density is high.

Local NGOs say the real numbers may even be significantly higher because many victims do not report kidnappings out of fear of reprisals.

This latest surge, data shows, began around 2021, when the number of violent incidents spiked due to rising cross-border infiltration and the proliferation of criminal gangs operating along forest corridors. In that year alone, Kwara recorded 84 violent attacks and 45 deaths.

Eruku youths looking distraught  

Attacks dipped briefly in 2024 but rose sharply again in 2025 climaxing with the CAC Eruku raid.

Security analysts warn that the patterns now emerging in Kwara mirror those earlier seen in Kaduna, Niger and Zamfara before those states descended into widespread rural banditry.

Kwara’s forests

To understand the insecurity in Kwara, one must understand its forests.

The belt stretching from Patigi through Ifelodun, Ekiti, Isin and Oke-Ero, down to the Yagba axis of Kogi State, is a labyrinth of dense forests, narrow farm roads and unmonitored bush paths perfect cover for criminal movement.

Academic studies, including those published in the Peace Studies Journal, consistently classify such forested rural spaces as “zones of criminal refuge,” especially where policing is limited and the population is sparse.

But it is not just the forests, it also has to do with the roads or the lack of them.

The Kabba–Egbe–Ilorin Highway abandoned to bandits

Once a bustling federal highway connecting Ilorin to Kogi and further south, the Kabba–Egbe–Ilorin Road has now become a metaphor for state neglect.

Riddled with potholes deep enough to swallow small vehicles, and lined with thick bushes, the road has collapsed into a perfect kidnapping haven.

Motorists avoid the road. Police patrol it with caution and bandits have taken ownership of it. The road can be described as one of Nigeria’s worst examples of infrastructural abandonment.

A community elder in Eruku put it more bluntly: “Our road is bad and contributes to insecurity. If there is an attack, before help can come, the bandits would have escaped because the road is not motorable.”

The geography is not just enabling crime; it is accelerating it.

The revenge theory: Why Eruku was targeted

While authorities initially labelled the November 18 Church attack as “just another bandit raid,” community sources point to a deeper motive revenge.

A few days before the attack, two people were kidnapped near the same Church. During ransom delivery, the deceased head of Eruku local vigilante identified widely as “Alaja” reportedly engaged one kidnapper, overpowered him and recovered both the ransom money and the kidnapped victim.

Bullet ridden windows aftermath of the attack 

The bandits, community leaders now believe, returned to make a statement.

Residents said the attackers hid in trees for hours before striking, an account confirmed by multiple eyewitness reports.

Segun Olori Eta, a Chief in Eruku who was in the Church at the time of the attack said, “I think the bandits studied movements, waited for the Church to fill, and then launched a coordinated raid meant to inflict maximum fear.

“I was in the Church with my wife and 5 children, when the shooting started and in the ensuing chaos I ran out of the Church. I saw one of the bandits on the three shooting directly into the Church.

“I scaled the fence, and two others pursued me on foot shooting, i don’t even understand how no bullets touched me, it’s only God, they later went away with my wife and four children, only me and one of my sons who hid in between woods inside the Church escaped,” he revealed.

Another resident, Ige Josiah, whose son and wife were among the kidnapped worshippers said he believed the Church attack was not random.

He said: “My son was among those 18 kidnapped residents; three earlier and we were in the Church that day to give praise to God for their safe return.

“I think the bandits were angry that some escaped. Although I paid 2 million before my son was released, they came into the Church like wounded lions looking for lost food.

“At the end my son who returned just a week earlier from the kidnappers’ den and my wife was among those kidnapped that day, ” he revealed.

Segun who lost his brother during the attack, and his mother was kidnapped lamented the attack which he tagged planned and senseless.

Segun who lost a family member to the attack 

“Look at where they killed my brother on Tuesday, is this place bush (pointing to the spot his brother’s corpse was retrieved a day after the attack).”Do we really have a government in this country?

“Please we need something to be done; let the government stop these people wasting our lives. In Nigeria we have enough capability to do it,” he said.

A senior police officer who is familiar with the terrain and has been investigating a series of kidnapping incidents in the area, spoke with The ICIR on the matter.

” Well, the residents might not be entirely wrong to assume the bandit came for revenge, because the manner with which the deceased vigilante head operates is very daring and non-conforming.

“This is someone who has had a series of encounters with the bandits, shot at several times with bullets not penetrating him and has contributed immensely to the safety of the community in conjunction with security operatives.

“We are looking at all angles, including prior hostilities, but we cannot jump to conclusions until investigations are completed.”

But the community is convinced, it was a retribution message to vigilantes, a message to villagers, that resistance comes with consequences.

“I believe the bandits are angry that we have been able to contain them for long, although they have been kidnapping our people for long but most of the time, it’s either they escape or our vigilante rescue them,” says Shola Peters, a youth leader in Eruku town.

“Our vigilante and hunters are very brave people. Despite not having ammunition that matches the bandits they have always confronted them any time they make inroads into the community.

“This recent attack was planned and intended to inflict devastating damage, Eruku is the first town in Kwara where they will attack a Church, and I am very sure it was ‘Alaja’ and those that escaped from them that they traced to the Church.

“However we thank God they have been released, but the death of Alaja is very hard to bear,” he said.

When Feranmi Joshua (name changed for safety) one of the abducted worshippers regained consciousness in the forest, his arms were bound, and the night sky was his only witness. Around him were dozens of other women, elderly men, young people dragged from the Church into the forest.

He told The ICIR, “We slept on cold ground. They moved us constantly. Some people fainted. What we went through is not something anyone should experience.

“We trekked barefoot across sharp rocks, thorns and even crossed streams. The bandits know the route and we were told we can’t escape. Truly it was nearly impossible to do so, he said.

How a kidnapping economy emerged in Kwara

In a 2022 report  ICIR reported that Kwara, touted as the ‘state of harmony’ had lesser reports of insecurity ravaging the rest of the country, until  when incidents of abduction and banditry became rife in the north-central state raised the alarm about abductions.

In the last six months of 2021 alone, cases of kidnapping for ransom in Kwara were rife, especially in the southern part of the state.

The government ignored the alarm then. Even the Kwara state police command through its then spokesperson, Ajayi Okasanmi, described the report as untrue, declaring that Kwara was safe.

A few months earlier the Aare Onakakanfo of Yorubaland, Iba Gani Adams, raised the alarm that bandits and kidnappers had relocated to Kwara and Kogi States, noting that the spate of insecurity in the two states was becoming alarming.

Speaking at the 2021 edition of the Oya Festival in Ira, Oyun LGA of Kwara State, on November 27, Adams decried the increasing rate of kidnapping in the state, adding that reports at his disposal indicated that some criminal elements have relocated to the state.

He urged Governor AbdulRasak to create a state security outfit that could help combat the growing influx of bandits and kidnappers.

He said: “Governor AbdulRasak needs to provide adequate security for the people of the state as well as the visitors. The report that some of the harmful elements, including bandits and kidnappers, have relocated to Kwara and Kogi states is alarming. The Kwara state government needs to improve the security situation by using the Amotekun structure to combat the growing spate of insecurity in the state.”

The then Commissioner of Police Kwara State, Tuesday Assayomo, in reaction to the claim of Gani Adams and the concern raised by the people of the state, took a tour of Kwara South senatorial zone on November 30, 2021, to see first-hand, the security situation of the zone.

Speaking during a meeting with community leaders, the CP reiterated his determination to deal with criminals irrespective of names or groups they belong to, while also accepting to work with any individual or group of people who are interested in collaborating with the police to fight crime.

Kwara State Commissioner of Police CP Adekimi Ojo addressing residents of Eruku

The people were advised to join hands with the police and other security agencies to ensure that the state’s existing peace and harmony is sustained.

Interviews with security experts, vigilante members and local residents reveal that the border corridor between Kwara and Kogi has become a fast-growing ransom market, fuelled by, ungoverned forests, broken highways, high youth unemployment, weak law enforcement presence, cross-border movements from Niger and Kogi and local informants exploiting economic desperation

A security strategist in Ilorin, Segun Omoyefa, said: “Once a corridor becomes known as a ransom marketplace, it attracts more criminals.

“A huge amount has exchanged hands on the last 11 months almost billions in naira , Kwara is unfortunately heading in that direction,” he said.

In this new economy, kidnappers earn millions weekly. Communities sell land, livestock, property everything to pay ransom. Bandits reinvest in weapons, transport, informants and logistics, and the cycle repeats.

Ghost villages, empty farms, lost schools

In multiple communities across Ifelodun, Patigi, Ekiti and Edu LGAs, residents told The ICIR that entire villages have emptied out, and farmlands abandoned.

In Eruku and neighbouring settlements, traders have stopped attending weekly markets and those who attend do so with caution closing early and avoiding late night movement.

Farmers now work in groups of 30–50 for safety for those who haven’t abandoned their farms entirely.

Funmi Anifowose, a farmer lamented the spate of insecurity in the town, saying previously the local government always gives support to the vigilante which makes the town peaceful.

” It was not like this before, our vigilantes are fearless and up and doing, previously with support from the council, they have provided security in the town and whenever they are called into action they always save the day, but it’s not like that again, they don’t have ammunition.

Houses deserted after the attacks in the community

” I am a farmer but I don’t have rich family members. I can’t go to the farm again for fear of being kidnapped; I can’t go to ilorin because of fear of being kidnapped on the road which is very bad.”

She said some families have relocated entirely to Ilorin and Several schools’ record attendance dropped about over 40 per cent.

For a state whose rural economy depends on smallholder farming, this is a looming food security disaster.

State closes schools in 4 LGs, demands military base

The State government, on Wednesday, November 20, 2025 directed the closure of schools across four LGAs amid escalating insecurity in the affected communities.

The government’s decision was disclosed by the Nigeria Union of Teachers, Kwara State Wing.

In a circular obtained by The ICIR, the NUT Chairman, Yusuf Agboola, announced the shutdown of schools in Isin, Irepodun, Ifelodun, and Ekiti LGAs.

Agboola explained that the union was acting strictly on instructions from the Ministry of Education and Human Capital Development after the government raised concerns over fresh security threats in Kwara South.

“Comrade chairmen, this is to inform you and through you, all schools in the above local governments of the instruction to close down all schools with immediate effect until further notice,” the circular read.

The NUT chair assured school heads and teachers that further directives would be communicated as the situation evolves.

Strong words, weak structures

In the wake of the Eruku attack and other recent kidnappings, the Kwara State Government launched what it called a “multi-agency joint operation” involving the Nigeria Police tactical units, DSS operatives, Army detachments from Ilorin and local vigilante groups.

Governor Abdulrazaq also announced plans to seek the establishment of a Forward Operating Base of the Nigerian Army and a Mobile Police Squadron in Eruku, Ekiti LGA.

The governor, who visited Eruku for an on-the-spot assessment, a day after the incident disclosed that he had spoken with the General Officer Commanding, 2 Division, and the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, on the urgent security upgrade needed in the crisis-hit area.

Houses deserted after the terror attacks in the community

The state also announced plans to, deploy an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) permanently in Eruku, seek approval for a mobile police squadron and establishment of a permanent military base in the border area

Analysts not impressed

Some analysts argue that these interventions, while commendable, are reactionary, episodic and unsustainable.

A senior security analyst Lawal Arikewuyo who has studied North-Central conflict patterns told ICIR: “You cannot secure a forest corridor with reactionary deployments. You need permanent presence, not photo opportunities.”

Community vigilantes across Kwara state echo this sentiment. They complain of, limited ammunition, poor logistic, lack of protective gear, no hazard allowances and minimal state support

“Sometimes,” a vigilante leader said, “we confront men with AK-47s using Dane guns.”

Experts warn that without urgent structural reforms, Kwara could mirror the insecurity trajectory of Kaduna or Niger states where rural banditry evolved into rampant terrorism within a few short years.

Taoheed Rahman a public affairs analyst, said: “Kwara is unfortunately tagged as one of the states ravaged by insecurity in the North.

“The government needs to come out with workable solutions that can be seen, if not that tag of insecurity will be with the state for a long time , and it will affect many things, he warned.

To reverse this crisis, chairman of Ifeldoun LGA, Abdulrasheed Femi Yusuf, said a permanent combined security outpost is required in the area.

“The Federal Government should establish a permanent military base in Baba Sango Forest to curb the activities of bandits operating across four states.

“The vast Baba Sango forest has become a safe haven for kidnappers and armed bandits terrorising Kwara, Ekiti, Kogi and Niger states,” he said.

Also, an Ilorin based political analyst, Imam Abubakar, said the security needs to deploy new tactics in the fight against banditry in Kwara, Niger and Kogi state.

” There is a need to rethink the fighting strategy of these bandits, we all know the bandits understand this terrain very well and we know technology can cover areas human patrols cannot.

“Forest monitoring using drone surveillance, including, well trained funded, accountable local vigilantes can supply actionable intelligence,” he said.