AN analysis by The ICIR has shown that between April 2023 and March 2024, Nigeria under President Bola Tinubu pulled a total trade value of N85.69 trillion, with an import value of N37.03 trillion and an export value of M48.65 trillion.
Despite the surge of the foreign trade volume, it failed to impact on Nigeria’s currency market as Nigeria’s foreign exchange reveals scarcity of supply and periodic interventions by the apex bank, the analysis further revealed.
The data was gathered from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’s Foreign Trade Statistics report from the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 to the first quarter (Q1) of 2024.
The trade balance, determined by the difference between the value of exports and imports stood at N11.62 trillion.
While Nigeria’s trade balance appears to be in surplus due to higher export values than imports, a closer examination reveals this increase could not address the country’s persistent foreign exchange challenges.
President Bola Tinubu while he read his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, directly addressed foreign and local investors, assuring them that his administration would thoroughly examine the challenges hindering market growth and implement measures to create a profitable business environment.
He said, “I have a message for our investors, local and foreign: our government shall review all their complaints about multiple taxation and various anti-investment inhibitions. We shall ensure that investors and foreign businesses repatriate their hard-earned dividends and profits home.”
Contrary to expectations, Nigeria’s foreign trade has been plagued by instability over the past year, due to policy changes such as the removal of fuel subsidies, naira devaluation in the foreign exchange market, and the surge in demand for US dollars to conduct business, which has collectively created an uncertain and challenging trade environment.
| Quartly breakdown | Import | Export | Total trade |
| Q2 2023 | N6.3 trillion | N6.44 trillion | N12.74 trillion |
| Q3 2023 | N9.04 trillion | N10.35 trillion | N19.39 trillion |
| Q4 2023 | N9.05 trillion | N12.69 trillion | N21.74 trillion |
| Q1 2024 | N12.64 trillion | N19.17 trillion | N31.81 trillion |
| Total | N37.03 trillion | N48.65 trillion | N85.68 trillion |
Table showing the quarterly breakdown of foreign trade one year under President Tinubu
The ICIR reported how businesses have exited the country such that taxes generated from the sector dipped in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
Data from the report show that within the year under review, the foreign trade merchandise was majorly driven by crude oil and crude products. But the challenges of low oil production triggered by oil theft in the oil-rich Niger Delta and divestment of oil stakes by some international oil companies are posing risks for revenue generation.
Furthermore, The ICIR observed that between June 2023 and March 2024, Nigeria only met the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota once, in January 2024.
In the 2024 budget, the federal government set the crude oil production benchmark, including condensate, at 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and based the crude oil benchmark at $77.97 per barrel and exchange rate at N800 to one dollar. However, The ICIR learned that the country loses over N16 billion in revenue daily from crude oil as production drops.
The ICIR reported that scarcity of foreign exchange and the high cost of funds are the two biggest hiccups facing industries in the country.
Meanwhile, the top trade partners were countries in Europe and Asia with a total trade of N35.62 trillion and N30.35 trillion respectively. The ICIR also observed that more trade was imported and exported between January and March 2024 than in any other quarter since the president assumed office.
| Region | Import | Export | Total trade |
| Africa | N1.13 trillion | N5.28 trillion | N6.41 trillion |
| America | N4.62 trillion | N8.38 trillion | N13 trillion |
| Europe | N13.97 trillion | N21.64 trillion | N35.62 trillion |
| Asia | N17.20 trillion | N13.16 trillion | N30.35 trillion |
| Oceania | N127. 50 billion | N178.92 billion | N306.41 billion |
Table showing the breakdown of total trade by region
In December 2023, the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment Doris Uzoka-Anite, said that the revised and approved Nigeria Trade Policy document (2023-2027) serves as a comprehensive guide that will steer the country’s trade, industry, and investment sectors towards a prosperous future, fostering growth and development.
Expert opinion
A development economist, Celestine Okeke told urged the federal government to market the country with proper economic plan and policy consistency to reduce Nigeria’s import dependency and bolster its foreign trade statistics.
“There should be a wholistic economic plan by the government. There are lots of economic issues the government is getting wrong. A projected wholistic economic plan should be able to have other policies key into it. Currently, we don’t have that and it is creating lots of problems for the Tinubu’s administration,” Okeke said.
Kehinde Ogunyale tells stories by using data to hold power into account. You can send him a mail at [email protected] (jameskennyogunyale@gmail) or Twitter: Prof_KennyJames
Harrison Edeh is a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, always determined to drive advocacy for good governance through holding public officials and businesses accountable.