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Can the N1.5 trillion budget cut save Nigeria from the impending recession?

Samad UTHMAN
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Can the N1.5 trillion budget cut save Nigeria from the impending recession?

LAST week, the federal government through the minister of finance, budget and national planning, Zainab Ahmed, announced the proposed cut of the 2020 budget by N1.5 trillion.

This implies that if approved by the National Assembly, the nation’s 2020 budget will be cut by 14.16 per cent, from N10.59 trillion to N9.09 trillion.

This is based on the drastic plunge in global oil price which currently sold at $25.06 per barrel, the lowest since April 2003.

This cannot be  disconnected from the global outbreak of the deadly coronavirus after it first emerged in China.

According to the minister, “a 25 per cent cut of all government-owned enterprises and these include the ones that are in the national budget, the 10 top ones we included in the 2020 budget but also those we did not include in the 2020 budget.

“So, all of these would have their recurrent expenditure and capital expenditure cut down by 25 per cent.

“By these measures, we expect that the operating surpluses that would accrue to the federation will increase because when their operational expenditure reduces the operating surpluses that they remit to the treasury will also increase significantly.”

Diversification, oil price normalization are the remedy- Analyst

Based on the adverse economic effect of coronavirus, part of which is the slow economic growth, significant decline in oil price and trade imbalances, It is evident that the 2016 tales of recession may repeat itself again.

Financial analysts in. an interview with The ICIR have expressed concern over the government’s proposal to cut the 2020 budget by N1.5trillion.

A market research analyst and expert, Seyi Kolawole, in his own view explained that government’s move will only exacerbate the current situation and the looming recession can be realistic.

“The budget cut is really not a solution for the impending recession. Actually, it makes our situation a bit worse off”

He said the only antidote to the impeding recession is for the oil price to bounce back to the benchmark of $57 per barrel.

“Our revenues are under attack as a result of the massive fall in oil prices (our major source of revenue). Only a reversal of this fall (which is unlikely in the short term) can potentially save us from a recession.

“A diversified Nigerian economy would have helped to shore up our revenues but we have failed to achieve that yet and the irony is that some projects to help diversify the economy will be cut from the budget because we don’t have the money to fund them. So we remain oil dependent.

“I don’t think there is any quick fix for the pending recession, individuals and businesses can brace up themselves as usual and hope for a quick vaccine for the Coronavirus.

“In addition, the government needs to very quickly kick start the drive to diversify the economy strategically once we make it out of this recession in preparation for the next disaster that may affect oil prices which I believe may not be too far off.”

Nigerians over time  have been clamouring for the overhaul and diversification of the Nigerian economy from the oil sector as global oil price affects the whole country’s well-being financially.

Nigeria is the largest oil and gas producer in the whole of Africa with 10th largest oil reserves in the world.

Drugs that could be a game-changer against coronavirus onslaught

Amos ABBA
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Drugs that could be a game-changer against coronavirus onslaught

SINCE the global outbreak of the deadly coronavirus after it first emerged in China, there has been a frenzied quest across the global biotech industry, pharmaceutical companies and research organisations to develop  drugs to treat the disease.

The scramble for a “magic bullet” drug that would provide a cure for the highly contagious virus, has put researchers on frenzy.

On Sunday night, a team of scientists drew up a list of possible drugs that may be effective in treating coronavirus.

Some of the drugs are currently used to treat other diseases, and repurposing them to treat Covid-19, the ailment caused by the coronavirus, may prove to be faster than trying to invent a new antiviral from scratch, the scientists said.

The list of drugs was revealed in their study published on the website bioRxiv, though the drugs are all in the clinical trial stages.

Drugs such as haloperidol used to treat schizophrenia, and metformin, taken by people with Type 2 diabetes are also been tested.

The coronavirus pandemic, which has infected more than 235,000 globally and killed over 9,800 people, continues to trigger anxiety across several countries whose health care systems face the threat of being overwhelmed by the numbers of severe cases of COVID-19.

The ICIR examines the possible drugs been considered by scientists for treating the dreaded coronavirus and its associated complications.

Chloroquine

Chloroquine has been much in the news after it was announced by President Donald Trump of the UnitedS in a press briefing that chloroquine use may be the solution to the virus.

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NAID, followed the president’s remarks with a warning that there was only “anecdotal evidence” that chloroquine might work.

Chinese researchers had used chloroquine to treat infected patients in guidelines issued in February after seeing encouraging results in clinical trials.

However, within days doctors and health officials warned about the drug’s lethal side effects and rolled back its usage.

Chloroquine kills the single-cell parasite that causes malaria. It is believed the drug can attach to a human cellular protein called the sigma-1 receptor. And that receptor is also the target of the coronavirus.

The World Health Organisation, WHO has also announced that chloroquine was among the four drugs being tested as potential coronavirus therapies, a part of an aggressive effort to jumpstart the global search for drugs to treat Covid-19. 

Countries are already signed up to participate in the clinical trial include Argentina, Bahrain, Canada, France, Iran, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, and Thailand.

Remdesivir

The experimental drug has been touted as a possible cure for the virus after it was used to improve the clinical condition of the first patient infected by the coronavirus in the US.

The FDA has already allowed 250 patients to access the drug, the study states that Remdesivir is not expected to be largely available for treating a very large number of patients in a timely manner” because of its status as an experimental drug.

Health officials from WHO has noted that Gilead Sciences Inc, the makers of  Remdesivir has demonstrated efficacy in treating the coronavirus infection.

Gilead Sciences Inc recently revealed that it was temporarily putting new emergency access to the experimental coronavirus drug due to surging demand because it wanted people receiving the drug to participate in a clinical trial to prove if it is safe and effective.

Actemra

The drug is currently used for rheumatoid arthritis. It was developed by Roche’s Chugai Pharmaceutical unit and also employed to suppress cytokine release syndrome in cancer patients. Cytokine release syndrome is a hyper-reaction of the immune system, which is also found in patients with COVID-19.

However, Roche is launching a Phase III trial of Actemra plus standard-of-care patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. After treatment, patients in the trial will be followed for 60 days and an interim analysis will be performed in hopes of early evidence of efficacy. It is expected to begin enrolling patients in April.

Favipiravir

The National Medical Products Administration of China approved the use of Favilavir, an anti-viral drug, as a treatment for coronavirus. The drug has reportedly being considered effective in treating the disease with minimal side effects in a clinical trial involving 70 patients. The clinical trial is being conducted in Shenzhen, Guangdong province.

Kevzara

It is being tested against coronavirus infection in a first-in-human clinical trial sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIAID, it was used for 48 patients and its safety and tolerability is being studied.

Kevzara is approved for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and is known to block the interleukin-6 (IL-6) pathway, which causes an overactive inflammatory response in the lungs of COVID-19 patients.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals has partnered with Sanofi, a French drug firm to evaluate Kevzara, a fully-human monoclonal antibody, in phase II/III clinical trial in patients with severe COVID-19 infection.

The biotech companies co-developed Kevzara, which received FDA approval in 2017.

Interferon Alfa 2b

A drug developed by Cuban’s biotech industry, Interferon alfa 2b, is known to boost the immune system and has proved effective in previous epidemics such as dengue fever and HIV/AIDS, was among the treatments used by Chinese medical authorities to curtail the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China.

Several countries namely Chile and Spain, have made attempts to get access to the drug. Also with supplies of Interferon alfa 2b, a team of Cuban doctors has reportedly being sent to Italy to support medical efforts in Italy.

Kaletra

It is used to provide a boosting agent, and in combination with other antiretrovirals, for the treatment of HIV-1, the drug is a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir.

Lopinavir/ritonavir in combination with ribavirin showed reduced fatality rate and milder disease course during an open clinical trial in patients in the 2003 SARS outbreak.

Kaletra’s was being tested for its ability to cut viral load, which was critical because the drug was meant to directly attack the virus rather than merely relieving symptoms od COVID – 19.

However, the chances are now slim that Kaletra could represent an effective treatment for severe COVID-19 after it was being touted as a gamechanger in the coronavirus scourge its chances have been dashed by a trial failure in China.

In a clinical test for 199 Chinese patients, details of which were published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that those receiving the treatment had no better outcome than those who had received other forms of care.

It didn’t improve the standard of care of the patients at improving their clinical symptoms, extending lifespan or cutting viral shedding in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19.

COVID-19: Nigeria’s total exports of crude oil in 2020 could reduce by $19b— ECA

Paul Owolabi
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COVID-19: Nigeria’s total exports of crude oil in 2020 could reduce by $19b— ECA

THE Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Vera Songwe said the COVID-19 outbreak could reduce Nigeria’s total exports of crude oil in 2020 by between US$ 14 billion and US$ 19 billion.

“Africa may lose half of its GDP with growth falling from 3.2 per cent to about 2 per cent due to a number of reasons which include the disruption of global supply chains,” said Songwe during a press briefing in in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

She said the continent would need up to US$ 10.6 billion in unanticipated increases in health spending to curtail the virus from spreading, while on the other hand revenue losses could lead to unsustainable debt.

Songwe noted that it is estimated that COVID-19 could lead to Africa’s export revenues from fuels falling at around US$ 101 billion in 2020.

According to her, remittances and tourism are also being affected as the virus continues to spread worldwide, resulting in a decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows; capital flight; domestic financial market tightening; and a slow-down in investments – hence job losses.

“Pharmaceuticals, imported largely from Europe and other COVID-19 affected partners from outside the continent, could see their prices increasing and availability reduced for Africans,” she said.

With nearly two-thirds of African countries being net importers of basic food, shortages are feared to severely impact food availability and food security.

She expressed concerns that negative consequences are expected to worsen, if COVID-19 develops into an outbreak in Africa.

A decline in commodity prices could lead to fiscal pressures for Africa’s economic powerhouses such as South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and Angola, she added.

The ECA, in a presentation on the economic effects of the COVID-19 on Africa, suggests governments could review and revise their budgets to reprioritize spending towards mitigating expected negative impacts from COVID-19 on their economies.

Africa urgently needs $100b to avert further Coronavirus pandemic —African Ministers of Finance

Paul Owolabi
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Africa urgently needs $100b to avert further Coronavirus pandemic —African Ministers of Finance

AFRICAN Ministers of Finance have said that Africa urgently needs $100 billion to fight the further negative impact of the coronavirus in the continent.

This was part of the resolutions made by African Ministers of Finance on March 19 at the end of a virtual conference held to exchange ideas on the efforts of their respective governments in dealing with the social and economic impacts of COVID-19.

They noted that even before the COVID-19 pandemic, Africa was already experiencing a huge financing gap in funding measures and programmes aimed at realizing SDGs and Agenda 2063 targets and goals.

The Ministers emphasized that without coordinated efforts, the COVID-19 pandemic would have major and adverse implications on African economies and the society at large.

Original economic forecasts in most economies are on average, being downgraded by 2-3 percentage points for 2020 due to the pandemic.

They unanimously agreed that Africa needs an immediate emergency economic stimulus to the tune of US$100 billion.

According to them, the waiver of all interest payments, estimated at US$44 billion for 2020, and the possible extension of the waiver to the medium term, would provide immediate fiscal space and liquidity to the governments, in their efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The interest payments waiver should include not only interest payments on public debt, but also on sovereign bonds.

For fragile states, the ministers agreed on the need to consider waiving principal and interest and encourage the use of existing facilities in the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), African Development Bank (AfDB) and other regional institutions.

According to the Commission, almost half of this money could come from waivering interest payment for countries on the continent.

Government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in sub-Saharan Africa has doubled in the past decade but countries in the region will have to shelve plans for further Eurobond issuance as yields surge and the spread of the coronavirus limits travel.

Data compiled by the U.K.-based Jubilee Debt Campaign showed that external debt payments consumed an average of 13 per cent of African governments’ revenue before the outbreak.

Given the limited health infrastructure and the fact that most of the pharmaceuticals and medical supplies consumed in Africa are imported, they called on the international community to support the upgrade of the health infrastructure and to provide direct support to the existing facilities.

The Ministers underscored the need to support the private sector and protect the over 30 million jobs at risk, particularly in the tourism and airline sectors across the continent.

In other critical sectors including agriculture, imports and exports, pharmaceuticals and in banking, the ministers agreed that all interest and principal payments on corporate debt, leases, extended credit facilities, refinancing schemes and guarantee facilities should be used to waive, restructure and provide additional liquidity in 2020.

A liquidity line should also be made available to the private sector to ensure the continuity of essential purchases and all Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that are dependent on trade can continue to function.

As part of an immediate health response, there is a need for a coordinated response in the logistics and delivery of testing equipment.

In this regard, the ministers emphasized the need to work with the WHO and existing continental institutions, in particular, the African Union and Africa CDC, while making maximum use of existing systems and funding partners, such as the Global Fund.

Particular attention should be placed on fragile states and vulnerable populations, especially women and children and those living in informal urban settlements.

 

MSMEs go through difficulties to access N220 billion CBN intervention fund

Paul Owolabi
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MSMEs go through difficulties to access N220 billion CBN intervention fund

THE President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), Prince Adetokunbo Kayode, said Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) accessing the intervention fund of N220 billion issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been a hassle.

Manufacturers expressed the slow rate of disbursing the funds to the MSMEs by the apex bank.

Recall, The CBN launched the MSME Development Fund on August 15, 2013, with a share capital of N220 billion.

The Fund was established in recognition of the significant contributions of the MSME sub-sector to the economy and the existing huge financing gap.

According to the apex bank, ten per cent of the Fund has been devoted to developmental objectives such grants, capacity building and administrative costs.

The CBN said that 60 per cent of the fund must be accessed by female entrepreneurs.

Ninety per cent commercial component will be released to Participating Financial Institutions(PFIs) at 2 per cent for on-lending to MSMEs at a maximum interest rate of 9 per cent per annum.

The CBN said eligible activities to be financed include agricultural value chain, services, cottage industries, artisans, trade and commerce and any income-generating business as may be prescribed by the bank from time to time.

Data from the apex bank showed that so far it had disbursed only N83 billion from the fund since it was launched to support the MSMEs sub-sector’s contributions to the economy and reduce its funding shortfall.

Kayode said since he assumed office as the President of ACCI, none of his members has been able to access the fund.

According to a CBN report published, MSMEs require improved financial support, studies show that Nigeria has a low amount of domestic investment through loans vis-à-vis other emerging markets.

Majority of the loans granted are issued to large corporate organizations and governments.

Jack Ma’s medical supplies donation arrive Africa

Ihuoma ILO
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Jack Ma’s medical supplies donation arrive Africa

ABIY Ahmed Ali, Ethiopian Prime Minister on Sunday evening received medical supplies from China, donated by China’s billionaire, Jack Ma and the Alibaba Foundation to support Africa’s fight against the novel Coronavirus.

Abiy in his speech thanked Jack Ma and the Alibaba Foundation for sending their supports and commended the duo for being the first to send CoVID-19 prevention materials and supports, which include 1.1million testing kits,  six million masks and 60,000 protective suits to be distributed to all 54 countries in Africa.

‘’Thank you Jack Ma and the Alibaba group for sending the first wave of COVID-19 prevention materials. Support includes 1.1million testing kits, 6million masks & 60,000 protective suits to be distributed throughout Africa.  Distribution to other countries will begin as of tomorrow,’’ Ahmed said.

medical supplies donated by Jack Ma/ Photo credit: Twitter

Ahmed further stated that the distribution to other African countries would commence on Monday (today) to hasten the fight against the pandemic.

Earlier last week, Jack Ma announced he would donate medical supplies to all African countries, stating that Africa cannot be left out in the effort to contain the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic.

“The world cannot afford the unthinkable consequences of a COVID-19 pandemic in Africa,” he said in a statement tweeted on his twitter page.

Presidency directs NASS members who returned from abroad to report to NCDC test centers

Samad UTHMAN
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Presidency directs NASS members who returned from abroad to report to NCDC test centers

 

 Uthman samad

THE Presidency has written to the leadership of National Assembly to direct its members who recently returned to the country from abroad to report themselves at the nearest test centre of Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).

The letter written by Abba Kyari, Chief of Staff to the President followed refusal by the returnee lawmakers to make themselves available for test at the airports.

Kyari noted in the letter that “airport screenings are our primary line of defense and refusal by any citizen to subject to these tests is a threat to our nation.”

A copy of the letter addressed to Olufemi Gbajabiamila, Speaker of House of Representatives, sighted by The ICIR,  urged the speaker to direct such members of the House to report themselves for test.

“Accordingly, you are kindly requested to direct all members of the House of Representatives who returned to Nigeria from foreign trips to report themselves to the nearest NCDC test centre with immediate effect,”Kyari wrote.

Earlier on Monday morning, The ICIR reported that the NCDC  announced that Nigeria has recorded five new cases of coronavirus, taking the total cases of Covid-19 recorded in Nigeria so far, to 35 with only one person reported dead.

Nigeria records first coronavirus death, deceased is former MD PPMC

Seun DUROJAIYE
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Nigeria records first coronavirus death, deceased is former MD PPMC

Nigeria has recorded its first death from coronavirus. The victim, was 67-year-old Suleiman Achimugu, former managing director of the Petroleum Products Marketing Company (PPMC).

Achimugu’s death was announced on Monday by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), stating that he returned home from the UK after a medical treatment.

The NCDC noted that the deceased had underlying medical conditions, including; multiple myeloma and diabetes and was also undergoing chemotherapy.

According to family sources, The former MD of PPMC returned from UK two weeks ago, but started exhibiting symptoms on Tuesday.

It was gathered that Achimugu passed on at 2am on Monday after suffering complications triggered by the virus.

His family members reportedly contacted the NCDC over the development and it was gathered that officials from the centre came to the house and took his blood sample.

“As of yesterday afternoon, he was coughing profusely. So they called the NCDC to inquire about his results,” a family source said.  “It turned out positive.”

“They picked him up and rushed him to specialist hospital, Gwagwalada. He died at 2am this morning.”

According to sources, his family members are currently under quarantine in their house.

They further disclosed that the NCDC will handle the burial..

At the moment, Nigeria has recorded 36 cases of coronavirus, with six states including Lagos, FCT, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti and Edo having confirmed cases.

Globally, the virus has infected over 341,000 persons and killed over 14,000 people according to John Hopkins coronavirus resource centre.

JUST IN: Former HoS, Oyo-Ita arraigned by EFCC over DTA, estacode fraud allegations

Abeeb ALAWIYE
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JUST IN: Former HoS, Oyo-Ita arraigned by EFCC over DTA, estacode fraud allegations

THE Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on Monday arraigned the immediate former Head of Civil Service of the Federation (HoS), Winnifred Oyo-Ita.

The EFCC had on Sunday released a press statement that Oyo-Ita would be arraigned along with eight others before  Justice Taiwo Taiwo of the Federal High Court, sitting in Abuja.

This morning, operatives of the anti-graft agency brought Oyo-Ita to the Federal High Court in Abuja over allegations of fraud.

According to the release, others arraigned along with Oyo-Ita are: Frontline Ace Global Services Limited; Asanaya Projects Limited; Garba Umar and his companies: Slopes International Limited; Gooddeal Investments Limited; Ubong Okon Effiok and his own company, U & U Global Services Limited and Prince Mega Logistics Limited.

They were arraigned for frauds relating to Duty Tour Allowances, (DTA), Estacodes, conference fees fraud and receiving kick-backs on contracts.

During investigation by EFCC, it was discovered that Oyo-Ita, in her roles in the civil service as Director, Permanent Secretary and Head of Service, used her companies as well as Effiok’s and Umar’s companies as fronts to receive kickbacks from contractors of various ministries and parastatals where she worked.

The former Head of Service in collusion with Effiok who was her Special Assistant, along with one Titus Okunriboye Tomsin, made bogus claims of fictitious DTA, Estacodes, conference fees which were paid by the government to the accounts of the suspects.

 

Nigeria now has 35 confirmed Covid-19 cases, as five new cases confirmed on Monday

Seun DUROJAIYE
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Nigeria now has 35 confirmed Covid-19 cases, as five new cases confirmed on Monday

THE Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has announced that Nigeria has recorded five new cases of coronavirus, taking the total cases of Covid-19 recorded in Nigeria so far, to 35.

In a  tweet shared on its official twitter page Monday morning, NCDC, presented the breakdown of the new cases, showing that Lagos has recorded two new cases, making the total cases recorded in the state 24.

It also shows that  Abuja has recorded two new confirmed cases, making the total six for the FCT while Edo State has also recorded its first case of COVID-19.

Between Friday, March 20  when Nigeria imposed travel ban and restrictions and Monday morning, Nigeria has recorded 23 new cases.

However, the Centre said two cases have been  discharged – the index case, an Italian man and another contact case, who was asymptomatic.

Former vice president Atiku Abubakar’s son who tested positive to the virus is among the new cases reported in Abuja.

The former vice president announced in a  tweet, that his son is being taken care of at the Gwagwalada Specialist Teaching Hospital.

Meanwhile, the NCDC has been preaching for citizens to observe the rules of prevention as well as practice social distancing to curb the spread of the virus.

Though the fatality of the virus is said to be at a minimal, and Nigeria is yet to record any death, the World Health Organisation (WHO) classified the global  risk level of the virus as very high.

Globally, the virus has infected over 341,000 persons and killed over 14,000 people according to John Hopkins coronavirus resource centre.

There is still no known cure or vaccine for the novel coronavirus and the world is witnessing  what many have described as a human-race altering moment.

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