A NEW report by Good Governance Africa (GGA) has raised the alarm over the strategic resurgence of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) across Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin.

The report was authored by a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa-Nigeria, Malik Samuel, and titled “Unseen Advances, Quiet Offensives: ISWAP’s Strategic Resurgence and the Limits of Nigeria’s Military Response”.

Presenting the report in Abuja on Tuesday, July 22, Samuel revealed that both the Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and ISWAP had conducted over 300 attacks in the North-East region since the beginning of 2025.

While he noted that JAS, otherwise known as Boko Haram, was responsible for the highest number of attacks, he said ISWAP overran at least 16 military bases in Nigeria within the first six months of 2025.

The military bases overrun by the ISWAP in Borno and Yobe states, according to the book, were: Mallam Fatori, Pulka, Goniri, Rita, Buratai, Bulabulin, Wajiroko, Sabon Gari, Kumshe (overrun twice), Limankara, Buni Gari, Marte, Rann, Wulgo, Kanama, and Gajibo.

The author highlighted what he termed “Evidence of Resurgence,” noting that ISWAP, increasingly recognised as ISIS’s most active affiliate, launched a sinister “Camp Holocaust” in the Lake Chad Basin as early as February this year.

This, he said, signalled a more aggressive and confident posture from the terrorist group.

The report stressed that ISWAP had demonstrated significant territorial expansion and re-organisation, including the strategic capture of the infamous Sambisa Forest—a major stronghold—and a comprehensive restructuring of its command and control structure.

According to the report, the re-organisation has facilitated an alarming extension of their operational reach, now reportedly stretching into Cameroon, Niger, and, concerningly, into Nigeria’s North-West and North-Central regions.

It attributed the group’s renewed strength to external support from the global Islamic State network, while also highlighting the involvement of foreign fighters and ISIS instructors, the deployment of drones, and the use of suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs).

This external support, the book explained, was compounded by “state weaknesses” within Nigeria, including soldiers ‘fatigue, poor logistics, and weak intel among security forces.

It added that ‘gaps from Niger’s Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) withdrawal’ created operational vacuums, while persistent “socio-economic grievances” such as poverty, and unemployment continue to provide fertile ground for recruitment.

Experts express dismay

Meanwhile, following the report’s presentation, a panel of security experts, consisting of the Special Adviser to the Chief of Defence Staff of Nigeria, Aliyu Gebi, and Policy-oriented researcher and international development practitioner, Mustapha Alhassan, expressed deep concerns over the findings. 

The panellists faulted the Federal Government’s continued reliance on some military approaches while neglecting the underlying structural and socio-political issues that fuel insurgency.

Gebi emphasised the need for political will, stating that “If there is political will, the insurgency can end next week.” 

He acknowledged that while the military had repeatedly degraded insurgents, the nature of the threat had evolved into organised crime, aided by poor coordination with affected neighbouring countries.

“As long as we ensure their recruitment, as long as we don’t stop artisanal miners from giving them gold, the attacks will continue,” Gebi said. 

He also warned that the political environment itself had become complicit in the crisis. 

“There are actors who need violence to remain in office, and there are actors who need violence to get to office,” he added.

Speaking on ISWAP’s territorial expansion and resurgence in Nigeria’s North-East, Mustapha Alhassan raised concerns that while politicians were already focusing on the 2027 elections, insurgents were quietly infiltrating vulnerable communities and expanding their recruitment base.

He criticised the government’s largely reactive response to attacks, rather than anticipating or pre-empting terrorists’ actions. 

Alhassan further stressed how ISWAP continued to exploit poverty, unemployment, ungoverned spaces, and weaponise the state’s failures for its gain.

Both experts called for a complete rethinking of Nigeria’s security that transcends military operations and centres on intelligence-led policing, economic revitalisation of conflict zones, and regional diplomatic relations with countries like Niger and Chad to recommit to joint security frameworks.

GGA executive director urges smarter, people-centred approach

On his part, the Executive Director of Good Governance Africa (GGA-Nigeria), Ola Bello, in his welcome address, stressed the urgency of rethinking Nigeria’s counter-insurgency strategy beyond the limits of conventional warfare.

Represented by GGA senior researcher, Adejumo Kabir, Bello described ISWAP as not just a surviving terrorist faction, but the “Islamic State’s most formidable affiliate”, responsible for more than a third of ISIS’s global attacks.

“Our analysis confirms that ISWAP alone accounts for over a third of ISIS global attacks and nearly 30 per cent of its global casualty figures in the first half of 2025,” he said.

He, however, called for an intelligence-driven approach that disrupts insurgent financing and logistics, strengthens community resilience, and puts local populations at the centre of national security planning.

In June, The ICIR reported how Boko Haram commanders were staging a brutal comeback in the North-East.