Disinformation has long plagued Nigeria’s information landscape, influencing public perception, deepening social divides, and undermining trust in both public and private institutions.

Its effects have been far-reaching, ranging from vaccine hesitancy fueled by vaccine hoaxes to election-related disinformation that erodes confidence in democracy among others. Over the years, state and non-state actors have deployed disinformation campaigns to exploit Nigeria’s vulnerabilities thus leading to low media literacy, heightening ethnic and religious tensions, and an increasing reliance on social media for news.

As we enter 2025, these challenges are set to intensify, with emerging trends threatening to exacerbate existing issues while introducing new complexities. From the weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI) to the rise of influence-for-hire campaigns, the stakes are higher than ever.

The following consists of disinformation trends that may likely shape Nigeria’s socio-political, economic, and cultural landscape this year.

1. Vaccine hesitancy and herbal remedies to health problems

In Nigeria, false claims about vaccines, cures, and diseases will likely persist. Fake narratives about diseases like cholera, Lassa fever, or new COVID-19 variants could thrive in rural areas. Vaccine hesitancy fueled by rumors, particularly among vulnerable populations, will hinder public health campaigns. Unverified herbal remedies promoted as “miracle cures” by influencers and traditional leaders will continue to challenge public health efforts.

2. Changing climate

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing our world today, resulting from long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns.

While these changes can occur naturally, such as through variations in solar activity or significant volcanic eruptions, the United Nations states that since the 1800s, human activities have been the primary driver of climate change. This is largely due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, as well as widespread deforestation.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate misinformation refers to the spread of inaccurate information about climate change that can arise from human error, while climate disinformation is driven by a deliberate intent to spread knowingly false information. Regardless of intent, “scientifically misleading information” can have “negative implications for climate policy”,

Recall that the 2024 Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum (WEForum) ranked misinformation and disinformation (on all topics) as the biggest short-term risk to human society, and extreme weather events as the top long-term risk, which implies that obscuring the facts about climate change can be extremely harmful. This is compounded by false information being significantly more likely to be reshared than the truth on social media platforms.

3. Anambra governorship poll

The Anambra state gubernatorial election is expected to hold on November 8, 2025. Like what we observed in Edo and Ondo off-cycle governorship elections, false claims about voter suppression, rigged elections, or fabricated results will be a major trend in the election.

Social media may amplify fake announcements of results, confusing voters and undermining trust in the electoral process. This, among others, is part of the election-related disinformation that Nigerians may have to grapple with, as such spreads faster from online to offline during election period.

4. Economic-related disinformation

As economic hardship persists in Nigeria due to rising inflation, among others, narratives about government programmes such as grain distribution (including rice), fuel subsidy palliative, job creation schemes or other palliative initiatives may likely increase in 2025.

Scams disguised as official initiatives targeting unemployed youth or rural dwellers will exploit economic hardship, further eroding trust in government efforts at reducing the hardship and increasing the purchasing power of the populace.

5. Rise of AI-generated disinformation

AI tools will be increasingly used to create hyper-realistic deepfakes, manipulated images, and fake audio. For example, fake videos of political leaders making controversial statements could circulate widely, especially during election.

In a low-digital-literacy environment like Nigeria, people may find it difficult to distinguish real content from AI-generated visuals and audio, exacerbating mistrust and creating confusion.

6. Influence-for-hire campaigns

Paid influencers, bloggers and social media personalities might likely be lobbied and engaged to promote disinformation. Politicians, brands, and even foreign entities may hire these influencers to push propaganda, suppress dissent, or discredit opponents, as topical events unfold in the year.

For instance, in February 2024, The FactCheckHub published an analysis on a disinformation campaign orchestrated and launched online by some individuals aimed at pressurizing Nigerian authorities to reinstate the then suspended Humanitarian Affairs minister, Betta Edu. She was eventually sacked and replaced with Nentawe Yilwatda during a major cabinet reshuffle by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in October 2024.

In Nigeria’s highly polarized political climate, these campaigns may deepen divisions and skew public opinion.

7. Foreign influence and information manipulation

Foreign state and non-state actors may exploit Nigeria’s vulnerabilities by spreading disinformation to destabilize the country or achieve geo-political goals.

Similarly, foreign actors might amplify divisive narratives around insecurity, ethnic or religious conflicts to manipulate public perception. For instance, the recent case where the Nigerien military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, raised fresh terrorism allegations against the Nigerian government.

Tchiani, in an interview with Radio-Télévision du Niger, the country’s state media, had accused President Tinubu of conniving with France to destabilise Niger Republic. But the Nigerian government has countered the claims, saying they were baseless.

Other areas where foreign actors might target Nigerians with their false narratives include international aid, trade and bilateral agreements.

8. Silencing women and girl-child

Gendered disinformation is sometimes regarded as a subset of misogynistic abuse and violence against women that uses false or misleading gender and sex-based narratives, often with some degree of coordination, to deter women and girls from participating in public sphere.

In 2025, actors may strategically use gendered disinformation to silence women, discourage them from online political discourse, and shape public perceptions toward gender and the role of women in democracies.

They may also target girl-child of school age from accessing education or young women from getting some kind of white or blue-collar jobs citing some ethno-religious beliefs, among others.

9. Ethno-religious and communal hostilities

Targeted false narratives about attacks on religious or ethnic communities may likely rise, particularly in conflict-prone Nigerian states such as Plateau, Kaduna and Benue. Such disinformation campaigns could stoke communal and national tensions, incite violence, and derail peace-building efforts.

The FactCheckHub has over the years observed that foreign actors also get involved in spreading disinformation campaigns during hostilities either between farmers and herders, settlers and indigenes, and Hausa Vs Igbos or Yoruba etc.

10. Conflict-related coordinated campaigns

Nigeria is battling with various forms insecurity ranging from banditry, terrorism and kidnapping for ransom, among others. It is pertinent to note that these challenges have persisted over the years.

But this year, coordinated false campaigns about kidnappings, communal clashes, terrorist and separatist activities may continue to circulate, particularly online and offline in volatile regions like the Southeastern, Northeastern and Northwestern regions of Nigeria.

These exaggerated or false narratives could cause unnecessary fear, displacement, and even overburden the security agencies, as the Nigerian government vows to tackle these insecurities in 2025.