PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu on Wednesday, October 1, assured Nigerians that the country has overcome its most difficult phase and is now on a path of economic recovery and stability.
In his Independence Day broadcast marking Nigeria’s 65th anniversary, the president stated that reforms undertaken by his administration since May 2023, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates, have begun to yield results.
He said the second quarter of 2025 recorded a 4.23 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product, the fastest in four years, while inflation dropped to 20.12 per cent in August, the lowest in three years.
Tinubu listed 12 key achievements under his government, including a record non-oil revenue of over N20 trillion, improved external reserves now at $42.03 billion, the stabilisation of the naira, and a consistent trade surplus.
He also said oil production had risen to 1.68 million barrels per day, with domestic refining of petrol resuming for the first time in four decades.
“We have attained a record-breaking increase in non-oil revenue, achieving the 2025 target by August with over N20 trillion. In September 2025 alone, we raised N3.65 trillion, 411% higher than the amount raised in May 2023.
“We have restored Fiscal Health: Our debt service-to-revenue ratio has been significantly reduced from 97% to below 50%. We have paid down the infamous “Ways and Means” advances that threatened our economic stability and triggered inflation. Following the removal of the corrupt petroleum subsidy, we have freed up trillions of Naira for targeted investment in the real economy and social programmes for the most vulnerable, as well as all tiers of government.
“We have a stronger foreign Reserve position than three years ago. Our external reserves increased to $42.03 billion this September—the highest since 2019,” he added.
According to Tinubu, the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio has risen to 13.5 per cent from less than 10 per cent, adding that the ratio is expected to increase further when the new tax law takes effect in January.
He stressed that tax law is meant to expand the base to build the Nigeria we deserve and provide tax relief to low-income earners.
Tinubu also said the country has recorded a trade surplus for five consecutive quarters, saying “We are now selling more to the world than we are buying, a fundamental shift that strengthens our currency and creates jobs at home. Nigeria’s trade surplus increased by 44.3% in Q2 2025 to ₦7.46 trillion ($4.74 billion), the largest in about three years. Goods manufactured in Nigeria and exported jumped by 173%. Non-oil exports, as a component of our export trade, now represent 48 per cent, compared to oil exports, which account for 52 per cent. This signals that we are diversifying our economy and foreign exchange sources outside oil and gas.”
The president mentioned that oil production has rebounded to 1.68 million barrels per day from barely one million in May 2023.
He added that the increase occurred due to improved security, new investments, and better stakeholder management in the Niger Delta.
While acknowledging the challenges posed by rising living costs, the President said the sacrifices Nigerians endured were necessary to avert economic collapse. He urged citizens to embrace productivity, patronise locally made goods, and support the government’s reforms.
The ICIR reports that the President’s declaration of victory over economic turmoil came against a backdrop of persistent challenges.
Food inflation is still high at 21.87 per cent and remains out of reach for millions, unemployment is widespread, and the government’s social investment programmes, while notable, have struggled to match the scale of deprivation.
Tinubu’s admission that Nigerians continue to grapple with a high cost of living underscores the gap between government statistics and the daily realities of households, analysts say.
Mustapha Usman is an investigative journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting. You can easily reach him via: musman@icirnigeria.com. He tweets @UsmanMustapha_M