WITH reactions trailing the ministerial nomination made by President Bola Tinubu, The ICIR has evaluated the profile of these nominees, predicting the portfolio the president might assign to each person. 

Going by the number of people nominated, the projections are hinged on the possibility of the president creating new ministerial portfolios that would actualise his administration’s intent. 

Tinubu submitted 48 names to the Senate in the last two weeks for screening and confirmation. Initially, 28 names were submitted as the first batch of nominees. A week later, an additional 19 were submitted before a review was done, which increased the list to 48 names.

After the screening exercise, the Senate confirmed 45 out of 48 nominees.

Also, The ICIR reported some analysis on the trend of governors becoming ministers, women’s representation in the list and a former governor with fraud allegations.

The list consists of past governors, former and present lawmakers, former state commissioners, former ministers,  former directors of government agencies, aspirants during the 2023 general election and other private sector experts. 

Key issues

Assuming all nominees are given a portfolio, this administration would have the largest ministerial cabinet since 1999, when Nigeria retired to uninterrupted democratic governance. 

Also, the president might adopt the style of former president Muhammadu Buhari by appointing senior and junior ministers, that is, a Minister and a Minister of State. 

In addition, many of the ministerial nominees come with professional and political experience, which could make them fit into any ministerial position as core administrators.

While the professionals were grilled thoroughly, their counterpart colleagues, who were either former governors or former legislative members, were told to bow and go. This development was frowned upon by many public affairs analysts.

For the Lead Director of the Centre for Social Justice, Eze Onyekpere, “no meaningful screening can be done without asking questions pertinent to the Ministries the candidate will do when he or she gets confirmed.”

According to Onyekpere, “The President needs to submit the list with the portfolios the Ministers have to hold. Also, the screening is not something that should be done in a hurry. The list needs to be submitted early to enable the National Assembly to do thorough screening through the Senate’s relevant committees while reconvening on the committee as a whole for more efficiency.

A professor of International Relations at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Charles Ukeje, said the drama surrounding the ministerial screening exposed the dark side of Nigerian politics and emphasized the urgent need for a more robust and rigorous screening process.

He stressed that the nation’s leadership recruitment process should not be reduced to a source of comic relief and that civil society must hold political leaders to higher standards of accountability, transparency, and integrity.

How we made the projections

For our projections, we reviewed the background profiles of each nominee and cross-examined them with the nominees’ trajectory as political officeholders. We also examined the questions asked during the screening exercises by the senators.

Also, in our projections, we considered the president’s priority and arbitraries in assigning ministerial portfolios to minister-designates. This could depend on the president’s political interests in a particular candidate and for a particular purpose. Election dynamics were also considered, and for the first time, an indigene of the Federal Capital Territory was appointed a minister since the present democratic dispensation, which started in 1999.

This may likely be connected to assertions, in some quarters, that the President is looking possibly at an all-inclusive Presidency, which saw even the nomination of opposition party members as seen in the case of a former Governor and Minister-designate, Nyesom Ezenwo Wike.

Accordingly, Wale Edun, who is projected to be the Minister of Finance, is currently a Special Adviser to Tinubu on Monetary Policies. Edun has a strong background in economics and was once a commissioner of finance in Lagos state and co-founded Stanbic IBTC Plc serving as the Executive Director. 

Meanwhile, it is already being touted that there is going to be a Ministry of Energy and Power. The focus is to give more room for gas commercialisation and full utilisation of gas to power constant electricity. The former governor of Kaduna, Nasiru El-Rufai’s responses have alluded to this development. And he is projected to be the minister if he becomes a minister-designate.

In the case of Yusuf Tuggar, Lateef Fagbemi, Dele Alake, Olawale Edun, John Enoh and Adebayo Adelabu, their appointment might be connected to the ministerial functions they have been associated with before their nomination. 

Tuggar, a former ambassador, might be appointed as Minster of Foreign Affairs; Fagbemi, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria who has served as legal counsel for the All Progressive Congress, appointed as Minister of Justice.

Edun and  Adelabu, who have been appointed as financial consultants to the government would head the Ministry of Finance; Alake, who headed Tinubu’s communication during his election and after he became president, would be appointed as Minister of Information and Enoh, who has been in the appropriation committee for budget while in the Senate, as Minister of Budget and National Planning. 

Also, during the screening, Uju Kennedy-Ohanenye was asked several questions by the lawmakers on how she would manage disasters like flooding and several developments in the Internally Displaced Camp. We project that she might be appointed to head the Ministry of Disaster Management.

This is the same case with the National Women Leader All Progressives Congress,  Betta Edu, projected to head the Ministry of Women Affairs. She was quizzed on issues affecting women’s development within the country.

In the case of former governors like Dave Umahi, Nyesom Wike, Atiku Bagudu, Gboyega Oyetola and Mohammed Badaru, we project that their appointment might be based on their trajectory as governors in their respective states.

For instance, Wike, who has dealt with oil spillage in Rivers, might be given Minster of Nigeria Delta so as to manage the South-South geopolitical region best.

Umahi might become the Minster of Works due to his professional expertise in engineering and constitution. Bagudu, who is an industrialist by profession, might head the Ministry of Trade and Investment, while Oyetola, with a strong administrative background, might head the Ministry of Interior. 

Ali Pate (who has links with global health funders GAVI), Heineken Lokpobiri and Joseph Utsev have respectively functioned in their professional capacities even as politicians and might be assigned to head the Ministry of Health, Environment and Water Resources, respectively. 

Also, The ICIR projected Bosun Tijjani, one of the youngest nominees and tech experts, might head the Ministry of Youth and Sports; owing to his tech background, he might also be tipped for Minister of Communications and Digital Economy; Another likely candidate to head the digital economy portfolio is Olubunmi Tunji Ojo.

Zephaniah Jossalo, the only FCT indigene appointed and the first time an FCT indigene has been appointed a Minister-designate since 1999, might become FCT Minster to assuage FCT indigenes who have been pushing for the post, and Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, the former director of the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons might head the Minster of Humanitarian Affairs.

Ahmed Musa Dangiwa owing to his portfolio as a former CEO of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria is projected to be the Minister of Housing, while Tahir Mamman, a professor and a university vice-chancellor, is a likely candidate for Minister of Education.

Let us know what you think and what your projections are in the comment section.

See the projections below: